When we talk about war pricing, oil is usually the first thing that comes to mind. Then we learned that gas is a bigger issue. Later, it expanded to a bizarre range, from helium to sulfuric acid. A less frequently discussed topic was its impact on food prices. But now, this issue has become truly significant. Because in Asia, many rice farmers are considering not producing rice in their fields due to rising costs. Firstly, fertilizer is now extremely expensive. Secondly, there's the issue of fuel costs for machinery/engines. Due to the increase in oil prices, fuel for all kinds of machinery has become extremely expensive. You might ask, "But if input prices have increased, doesn't the price of the agricultural product increase at all?" You're right, but you're thinking superficially. Yes, the price of the product will increase, but almost never as much as the increase in input costs. Therefore, at a certain point, this type of farming becomes economically pointless.

Now let's consider this on a global scale; what happens if the majority of farmers don't cultivate their land? Yes, the minority who do cultivate it will earn a lot of money. But since the minority in the workforce already has the capacity to bear the costs, a perfect example of capitalism emerges, and capital once again prevails. More importantly, there won't be enough products in the market, and the prices of all kinds of food, from bread to cakes and chocolate, will rise. Besides its inflationary effect, the problems related to people's access to affordable food could lead to many other problems; God forbid. In this sense, the shares of agricultural companies traded on capital markets have already shown strong performance, and this pricing will most likely continue. In addition, the prices of main grain products such as corn, wheat, and soybeans are also highly likely to rise. Besides buying pasta, bulgur, and rice for home, perhaps adding the assets mentioned above to investment portfolios might not be a bad idea.

The Hungarian economy, which has failed to show real growth for the last three years and contracted in 2021, was perhaps the strongest factor influencing the election result. The new administration seems likely to maintain good relations with both Russia and Europe. This kind of situation will establish a certain level of trust and sympathy, especially in terms of securing external financing. In the coming months, as foreign currency inflows into the country increase, the Hungarian Forint will appreciate, interest rates will fall, and the stock market will rise – unless a new war breaks out. In this scenario, with the possibility of acquiring financial assets from anywhere in the world now just a phone call to your banker, Hungarian bonds look quite promising. The bond market, which saw some movement last week, has already priced in some of the 10-year bonds, but there still seems to be room for improvement because the game is just beginning. Furthermore, the Forint, which has been strengthening for some time, made another push after the election. As long as money continues to flow into the country, the strengthening of the local currency is a frequently occurring scenario, and this pricing has just emerged. Hungary's adoption of the euro will likely be on the agenda in the next few years. But until then, the EURHUF pair will likely experience numerous ups and downs in the market.

Following the teams' failure to reach an agreement over the weekend, the Asian market opened cautiously at the start of the week, selling pressure. However, as the US session approached, buyers showed their influence, and the sentiment began to waver. To be honest, I think the war will end one way or another because of the US's timeliness. Therefore, I can understand the optimistic buying in the market. However, let me tell you a secret: the market is buying, but it's not entirely comfortable. In the previous three years, the stocks most bought after sell-offs were high-value companies traded on the US market, the most shorted stocks, and cash-burning stocks. This time, they're not buying cash-burning stocks. The big players are finding buyers because they're considered safe. The most shorted stocks are finding buyers because when the market recovers, future buying will reduce shorters' profits, and those who shorted will close their positions. But cash-burning stocks are having a hard time.