An industry that remained in the background for years is now at the center of the entire artificial intelligence race. Memory chips were long considered a cyclical and dim corner of the stock market. But artificial intelligence changed this picture, because as models got larger, the real bottleneck became memory bandwidth, not processing power. Today, Micron, the company at the heart of this transformation, announces its balance sheet after the US closing. The prospects are breathtaking. The market expects quarterly revenue to reach around $35 billion and earnings per share to reach around $20. Whereas this figure was just $1.91 a year ago, a profit jump of over 900%. Gross profit margin is expected to reach a record in company history at 81%.
So what is the reason for this madness? In a word, HBM, that is, high bandwidth memory. This memory always works alongside advanced artificial intelligence chips, including Nvidia's Blackwell and Vera Rubin platforms. Moreover, advanced memory production is in the hands of only three companies in the world, namely Samsung ($SSNLF), SKHynix($HXSCL), Micron ($MU). Roundhill Memory ETF traded in the USA, which provides access to this trio with a high weight through a single symbol, is also followed with the symbol $DRAM. Micron is the only US-based manufacturer of the trio, and its 2026 HBM capacity has already been sold. The artificial intelligence investment of more than $725 billion allocated this year by Amazon, Microsoft, Meta and Google is eventually flowing into these chips.
On May 26, Micron became the second memory company in history, after Samsung, to exceed $1 trillion in market value. Its shares have increased nearly 8 times in the last year, and although analysts have increased their targets one after another, it is difficult to catch up with the stock. There is also the other side of the coin. The stock is at an all-time high and is priced to perfection. The options market expects a double-digit movement, easily exceeding 10%, in a single day after the balance sheet. The real issue is the company's forecast rather than the numbers, that is, how much the share of HBM revenue is increasing and whether the 2027 capacity is locked.
Because the memory market is known for its sharp ups and downs. During the 2017-2018 supercycle, the stock fell by more than half from its peak even as profits rose. This time, those who say "the cycle is over, there is structural growth now" are pitted against those who say "every peak will eventually return". Today's balance sheet will be the first big test of this debate.
