ASML's balance sheet has indeed leaked. There is a 15.6% drop in its stock because of this. All artificial intelligence and microchip companies are pulling it down. Nvidia, AMD Broadcom are all in decline. But when we look at the details, there is actually no issue that concerns Nvidia. ASML says, "We were previously saying that our turnover would be between 30 and 35 billion dollars for 2025. That's why we are saying it will remain at 30." In other words, they have fallen below the range. There seems to be a shortage on the Chinese side.

They were previously saying that sales from China would constitute 49% of their turnover. It has now dropped to 20% and the management says that things are good on the artificial intelligence side. However, it seems that the return in other more traditional microchips will take longer than we think. As you know, there has been a weakening in the traditional electronics side in the world since Covid. Samsung also made bad statements due to its effect. This seems to be the main effect of slowing economies. But he says things are going well on the AI ​​side. This is the management statement, CEO Christophe Fouquet says the recovery will take longer than expected.

Of course, this is not good news for the market in general. But I don't think there is any aspect that concerns Nvidia. Because TSMC manufactures Nvidia and we know from TSMC that things are going well on the AI ​​side. But the markets had already risen a little quickly in recent days, as you know. I think they are using this as an opportunity for correction. Nothing really worried me in that respect. There are problems in other traditional electronics and automotive. Nvidia also had a nice decline here. I made a few small purchases, but Nvidia rose quickly. I wouldn't be surprised if the correction lasted a little longer, but I made a small purchase.

For a long time, that is, during the interest rate hike and interest rate cut cycles of central banks, expectations are actually priced in very significantly. For this reason, I compared the interest rate hike expectations of both major Central Banks. In other words, it is easy to do this by comparing the difference between Euro and Dollar by taking the data of who is expected to decrease or increase interest rates for whom in the swap market, and I see that there is a truly admirable relationship between them, a direct proportion. After all, this has been going on for a while. Sometimes it works historically in a coincident manner, sometimes most of the time this spread actually moves before the parity itself. When this last parity rose to 1.12, this spread actually started to turn slowly. Those who do not have such a platform can understand this from here. In other words, we do not necessarily have to have something like this. If we just read a little bit about the market, we see the following; While it is now being said that the FED may skip a meeting on whether to continue the interest rate cut or not, it was being said that the European Central Bank should continue its interest rate cuts.

So, of course, if this happens, the market knows that the interest rate difference will change in favor of the dollar. When we look at it in this sense, they started to point downward when the parity was at 1.12. I could see that the market would go a little more in favor of the dollar, and it did. So it came from 1.12 to its current levels. Now, since it came here in a short time with fast and big steps, there may be small upward attempts in terms of technical analysis, technical factors. But these will remain as weak reactions. I think that big investors trading in parity, funds etc. will use this to add new positions to the parity if it goes up, to add new positions in favor of the dollar in the downward direction, rather than opening a long Euro.

Likewise, when we look at the dollar index, there was a very tight rise in the dollar index in a short time and this causes an overbought situation when there is a big movement in a short time. In this sense, there is an overbought situation here too. Therefore, the market may make some pullback movements to grind this out. In Euro - Dollar, we should think of it as maybe 100 pips upward. There is also a little bit in the dollar index, but when we look at it in general and when we look at this interest rate expectation difference mentioned earlier, it is seen that the main direction is still a little bit down there. Likewise, if we go back to the reports we read, that is, when we look at whether the big banks agree with us here, the reports that said the parity was at 1.12 3 weeks ago and would go to 1.15 - 1.16 are currently pricing 1.07 - 1.06. If you ask me, 1.06 is a bit of an exaggeration.

Because the interest rate differences will not remain open that strongly or will not remain in favor of the dollar. After all, everyone is in a discount cycle, but there will definitely be a pricing for this. I predict that we will see 1.08. We need to re-evaluate this there. But in my opinion, it is a bit early to price 1.06. But in general, I see a bit lower in parities. Sterling is a bit different. There, due to the internal dynamics of Sterling, the upward movement may be a bit more exaggerated. When there is an intention to react to a reaction that can be considered weak, there are some anecdotes that will definitely justify it.

Here, on Tuesday, the Eurozone industrial production in Germany, the ZEW index, came in slightly better than expected, making us think that things are not that bad, and maybe supported the euro a bit. When we look at the German data, Germany is actually called the sick man of Europe. It is said that the heavy industry, which is based on the automotive sector, has been badly damaged in the electric vehicles sector in particular and has surrendered to China. But despite everything, when we look at the data that will come in the recent period, such as ZEW data and manufacturing, there is a movement here.

But in order to compare the American economy with Europe, I wanted to compare the DAX with the S&P 500 to see if there are opportunities in the DAX. In fact, when you look at it, the DAX is running towards new highs like the S&P 500. But when you think about it fundamentally, there is a situation like this. When you think about Europe or Germany, the world is in a new revolution now. In other words, before this, there was the heavy industry revolution. But after this, there is a revolution in the information sector. We are currently experiencing it and when you look back, it is not easy to count many companies in Europe that can enter the top 10 in the world. Almost all of the important ones are American companies. Maybe Chinese companies etc. can get involved in this business at some point and there is a situation that supports this view.

Actually, when I look at the performance of the DAX and the S&P 500, we have experienced many things since 2015. Here, crises came and went, they went up and down, but in the end, when we look at it, in every case, the S&P 500 remained much stronger than the DAX. After all, when we look at the ratio of these two, the ratio has come from approximately 6 to the 3.30s it is currently at. In other words, I am talking about the ratio of this S&P 500 divided by the DAX. There is something very serious there. The strength side is on the American side. In this sense, and it still is. When we look at it in this sense, no matter how good Germany's data is, in general, the weakness and fragility in Europe is already much higher than in the US, and the worse part is, because this fragility is cyclical, it can pass in 2 years, they go through a recessionary period, then the economic environment starts to recover. But the bad part, the part that makes it difficult is that there is still perhaps no company in Europe that can enter the top 10 technology companies that I just mentioned. Therefore, when you look at it in the long term, the king of these markets will probably be the American markets, even though Germany's data is good.

There is an investor group that evaluates these current prices as an opportunity based on the movements in the options market regarding the longer terms in the oil market. We went to 81-82 with geopolitical concerns. We couldn't stay there after that. Now we are below 75. Even if there is no ceasefire between Israel and Iran, they will only attack military points from now on. There is a thought that it will reduce civilian casualties relatively and will not turn into a more comprehensive front war. I am not a military strategist, but I spend a significant part of my time reading and understanding, and as a result, I have some inferences. Accordingly, I am trying to make financial gains. Therefore, I have some ideas.

Of course, it would not be right to open a position based on this, but I honestly did not think that Israel would be able to strike Iran's nuclear facilities as initially discussed due to the reactions it would receive from the world. I was evaluating the oil facilities as being very sure that the US would oppose this and with the idea that stemmed from there, they would not be able to hit the oil facilities. Because there was a rising oil price, and if you remember at that time, oil option positions opened at around $100 were flying in the air. So there was an expectation there. This was a situation that would fuel the inflation problem that the whole world is currently fighting against with these ridiculously high prices. To be honest, I didn't think they would allow it. If you ask me, this is actually the main reason for the news we saw on our agencies on Tuesday morning. In other words, I believe that the US and Israel have reached a strategy that the oil facilities should not be damaged in this regard.

After all, when we come to the economic side of the matter, first an oil price trying to reach above $80 and a price that has opened excessively from the recent moving averages there. In other words, a market that has gone into overbought and then an oil price that has come back despite OPEC reducing its production. This shows us the following. The main direction here, and I was already saying this before the war, is that the main direction for oil is down. The main direction here will continue to be down. In fact, when I look at options, there is a situation like this. In one-week option volatilities, the volatility of call options was very high and put options were low. When I look at it instantly, the volatility of call options remained the same but the volatility of put options increased.

Now, I think our conclusion from this reality should be this. Since the market is still pricing in the possibility of "what if" somewhere, volatility in call options is still high. In other words, a serious series of transactions are going on there. Some are buying, some are selling. However, in addition to this, there has been movement in put options on the put side. This shows us the following. The market has not yet decided on the direction, but it expects a big move no matter which way it goes. Because someone who buys options with this volatility is expecting a big move because they paid a lot of money. My expectation is that oil will go down a little more slowly from now on. Because as far as I see in the news agencies, I read that Iran is also making suggestions and offers to slow down this war. If this happens, the price of oil will go down a little, and it seems like there is a similar formation in precious metals. In other words, on the sales side, they are evaluating this as an opportunity and loading on put options, saying that they will not be able to find these prices in the future, and Saudi Arabia has also made statements to OPEC members saying that if you continue without complying with the quota, prices will fall to 50-60, which actually underlines the direction of the trend in a world where there is no geopolitical risk.

If we look at the bond market in the US, the FED will lower interest rates by this much, but then wait a minute, the FED probably will not lower them that much, the statement, the comment came to the market. But right now, for example, when we look at some regional FED chair statements on Monday evening, I see statements that are more positive about interest rate cuts. Because I can say that interest rates have almost reached 4.15 from 3.70 very quickly. Of course, there will always be counter-trend movements in discount cycles or increase cycles. Because now you have the central bank in front of you and when central banks enter a cycle of interest rate cuts or decreases, when they enter a cycle of increase, this continues for a certain period of time. In other words, they do not increase it today and decrease it tomorrow.

In this sense, it is relatively easier to see from the investor's perspective and what the investor who sees this will do is of course; they try to take a position in front of the Central Bank. After a while, these positions become so many that the market almost always gets ahead of the Central Bank in such cases. Central banks say wait a minute. This will not end until I say it is over. Since they say this will not happen until I say it is over, they change their tune from time to time. This is actually the period we are currently living in. In other words, they are actually calming the market by saying, “We did 50, but we won’t do that again, maybe we will skip it”, the data is like this. The market is pricing this in right away.

We need to look at the positions here for a little longer. I have a very high belief that the interest rate cycle will continue downwards in the longer term. However, it seems that this time the interest rate cycle will really only be due to the slowdown in inflation. Especially in America, the outlook on the recession side does not give us a clue. After all, when we look at it, I was thinking like this. I was saying that the interest rate will go down to 3.20 - 3 for the 10-year interest rate by the end of this year. It came to 3.70 once again, we have two meetings ahead of us. If they cut interest rates there, which I strongly believe they will do by 25 in at least one of them. I think we will probably see interest rates at 3.5 again.

The information, comments and recommendations contained herein are not within the scope of investment consultancy. Investment consultancy services are provided within the framework of the investment consultancy agreement to be signed between brokerage firms, portfolio management companies, banks that do not accept deposits and customers. The comments in this article are only my personal comments and these comments may not be appropriate for your financial situation and risk return. For this reason, investments should not be made based on the information and comments in my articles.