It has been 6 days since Bitcoin etfs were released. Bitcoin's price has not gone as planned and now there is plenty of speculation. I wonder if the demand for ETFs is large enough? Whether or not this demand may push the price of bitcoin upwards in the future. There are a lot of rumors going around. Some of these rumors involve rockets being fired. It is said in some parts that bitcoin will drop to 5000.

I don't have an opinion. I'll try to do math. We will simply try to look at it with mathematics and see whether etf is good or bad for bitcoin. What do they do in the long run? We will try to estimate the impact of this.

With the news of Bitcoin ETFs coming to the market, the price of Bitcoin jumped up to 49000. He retreated sharply from there. At one point, it looked like it would push below 40000. It is currently trading around 41755. Of course, many people were hurt during these harsh actions. Now everyone is wondering what will happen next. Now let's see what happens next. To understand what will happen next, we need to look at what has happened so far. Source Bloomberg for data.

Fidelity continued to purchase $227 million on the first day, $195 million on the second day, and $102 million on the third day. Black Rock's IBIT has traded $117 million in bitcoin on the first day, then $386 million, totaling $1 billion 428 million so far. Fidelity made a total of 1 billion 282 million dollars in transactions. These are already the biggest ones, the others; ARK is $382 million, BITB is $450 million. These are the big ones, the others are quite small compared to the bigger ones. When we look at the total, 3 billion 960 million dollars of bitcoin purchases have been made so far, excluding GBTC (grayscale). We exclude GBTC. Because there are exits from GBTC. When we look at the sales made there regularly, there are sales of 2 billion 807 million dollars.

The new money entering bitcoin on the net is only 1 billion 148 million dollars. So, it is not clear whether this figure is a significant figure after the expectations are raised super high. Because when we look at this daily log, this means roughly a net transaction of around 200 million dollars. This is not a big deal when we compare it to Bitcoin's total transaction volume. When we look at the daily transaction volume of Bitcoin, it appears to be 9 billion 704 million dollars. This weekend data in the last 24 hours is a little more intense during the week. Because ETFs are active during the week. Frankly, when we compare it like that, it is not a very serious figure. 200 million divided by 9.7, that is, around 2% in total, the transaction is coming from here in terms of net Bitcoin etf purchase. But if we put Greyscale's sales aside, this figure roughly quadruples. In this case, we come to 800 million dollars. Let's say 800 million dollars divided by 10 billion dollars to the total bitcoin volume. Its place in it reaches 8%. He's not bad at all. but Grayscale also continues to sell.

It would be useful to look at the issue from a customary perspective. When we look at the daily net purchases of bitcoin, ETFs have 15000 net purchases on the first day. On the second day, it is 5047. On the third day, there is an exit - 10283. Because on that day, the number of GBTC sales exceeded the total number of purchases of all other ETFs. On the fourth day, there are 11253 net purchases. Fifth day - 3242 exits again. On the sixth day, there is a net purchase of only 798 units. When we average this, there is a net purchase of 4600 units per day. But if GBTC had not sold 11257 units, the daily average purchase would have been 15863 units. This is a serious number because when we look at it, we see that the daily transaction volume of bitcoin is 232000 units. The entry of a new daily purchase average of 15000 units into the market will of course have a positive impact on the price of bitcoin.

In this case, we have two questions. First, will Grayscale continue to sell? Secondly, will they continue to buy bitcoin etfs at this level? Because if grayscale stops selling, if other new large sellers do not enter the market, and if bitcoin etfs continue to buy even at their current levels, the price of bitcoin may rise seriously. Because only 900 Bitcoins in total are produced per day. The entry of a new daily demand above 15000 into the market will definitely push the price of bitcoin upwards. Secondly, after the halving, this number will decrease to 450. So we are quite advanced in bitcoin production. 19 million of 21 million bitcoins have already been produced. That's why the effect of halvings is no longer as radical as before. It goes down from 900 to 450. But if there is a buying demand from ETFs around 15000, if Greyscale does not sell, and if others do not sell very seriously, it is certain that this will put upward pressure on the price of bitcoin.

So, let's see if Greyscale will stop selling it first. Then, let's think a little about whether the demand from bitcoin etfs will continue at this rate. I think we need to take a look at how many bitcoins Greyscale has before we figure out whether Greyscale will sell or not. So we can reason a little about the selling pressure it might create. There is a website called bitcointreasuries.net. Here it shows how much bitcoin various companies hold. When we look at the chart on this website we understand how big Greyscale is. Grayscale seems to still have 566973 bitcoins after all these sales. The average may not be fully up to date. But we are somewhere close to here. It's so high number. For example, microstrategy, which has been collecting bitcoins for years, has 189000 bitcoins. The United States government holds 215000 bitcoins. This comes from confiscations. There are 190000 in China. There are 46351 in Ukraine. I don't know why. Tesla has 9720 units. When we click on Grayscale on this site, we reach even more interesting data. We see that Grayscale sold a very small part of its huge bitcoin reserves, with huge bitcoins further behind.

Why is there a bitcoin exit from Greyscale? This is not Greyscale's decision. People who had their bitcoins locked in the Greyscale fund for many years, because you couldn't sell from that fund, now think they are free. Grayscale's commissions are very high, around 1.5%. They withdraw from there and transfer their bitcoins to other ETFs. Some of them are probably taking profits and leaving bitcoin entirely, going to other altcoins, etc. When we look at it in this context, these sales are not Greyscale's decision. We need to understand it.

The decision of investors whose bitcoins are locked in Grayscale and who still have 560000 bitcoins there, and since Greyscale's commission rate is high, the commission rate in some other ETFs is zero, albeit temporarily. In others it is much lower. I predict that this trend will continue. There are also people who have had their bitcoins here for years. I think they can also take their profits from the free bitcoins and go to other areas. Especially when we look at Bitcoin's post-ETF post-FED movement so far, it is not difficult to guess that the sales are going in this direction as well. I think this pressure may continue for a while.

That's why it's hard for us to move upwards as long as there is this pressure. Of course, it is difficult to know whether other whales will sell in the future. For example, there is Marathon Digital, a mining company that has 13726 bitcoins and can be sold. Tesla has 9720 in stock and it may be on sale. Block.one has 164000. Maybe it can go on sale too. There are also other whales that we don't know about, those that are not corporate. Because this site checks the bitcoins of corporate entities. There are also individual whales. They can also sell, but if we consider our assumption that there will be no new sales from them, the main story is going on in these bitcoin etfs, it seems like Grayscale's GBTC printing will not end yet.

From here we come to the next question. Will Bitcoin ETFs purchases slow down? Unfortunately, we do not have enough data on this subject yet. So far the average is around 14000 -15000. There has been a demand of 15000 in the last 6 days. It looks like GBTC was oversold that day or the demand continues. Part of this demand is that the output from Grayscale goes to these places because of low commissions. Net entry into the new market is actually quite low at only around $1 billion.

Will this increase, surely these bitcoin etfs will increase their bitcoin marketing. For example, Black Rock's CEO, Larry Fink, is talking about how good bitcoin is these days. Some of them advertise both on their own websites and on national television. I think they will increase the demand for bitcoin slightly from here. Can they increase it a lot, that is, will it add much to the net demand of $1 billion in the first week? Frankly, I'm not very sure about that, and if the number is going to stay around, it's clearly not a big number. Because we will see what happens after Greyscale's sales stop and whether there will be new net purchases. Because remember, we will look at some of these purchases, including those from Grayscale. That's why we need to look at the net.

Frankly, a weekly net purchase of around $1 billion does not change much in Bitcoin. It is useful to say so. So what you need to watch is how successful the etfs will be in marketing this bitcoin. If they can market it, attract new investors, and this money goes up in a meaningful way, it's good. But when we look at it on the net, I think that bitcoin etfs will not be of much help to the bitcoin price at the moment and this may demoralize a little after a while. Because there is still the belief of many people that bitcoin efts will have a positive impact on the price of bitcoin. This belief may begin to break down.

So what should we do in the coming days? We will look at the net bitcoin etf purchases and sales, and if we see that it is not going to 1 billion on a weekly basis, but to 4-5 billion, 6 billion dollars, the probability of the bitcoin price going up will increase. But remember ETFs are just part of the game. Apart from that, there were other whales we saw. What will happen if they sell? At the end of all this, one fundamental question arises. Will the usage area of Bitcoin evolve? Will more people believe in Bitcoin? These will determine the coming days.

But right now, when we look at the net, bitcoin etfs do not seem to have the power to make the price of bitcoin jump upwards. This is the situation. Of course, you will develop your own opinion. I present the data. I try to remain as impartial as possible. I would like the Bitcoin price to go up. But this picture is not very promising at the moment, at least in the short and medium term. If Bitcoin ETFs become active, market more intensively, the price may go up. I think it is especially useful to watch what the two big players, Black Rock and Fidelity, are doing here. I hope I explained my problem to you without overwhelming you with excessive numbers and without being too boring.

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