The history of technological revolutions points to an interesting aspect: industrial revolutions, which initially seemed to only improve production capacity, eventually transform society, politics, and the international system. Artificial intelligence is not expected to be an exception to this pattern. The topics discussed at the Trump-Xi summit were not limited to trade wars, the Strait of Hormuz, and Taiwan's independence. A key element of the meeting between the two leaders was the question of who would hold the next technological hegemony. Artificial intelligence (AI) constitutes a significant dimension of the ongoing fierce competition between the US and China to seize global leadership in technology. According to the Global AI Index study, the US and China are far ahead of the 83 countries examined.
This competition between the US and China is not limited to technology. If, as claimed, AI leads to a significant leap in productivity, this will affect all balances in the global system. To understand the effects of the latest wave of technological breakthroughs centered on AI, it is sufficient to look at previous technological revolutions such as the printing press, the steam engine, electricity, the automobile, the computer, and the internet. Because these kinds of “general purpose technologies” transform not just a single sector, but the entire economy and society.
Throughout history, countries that rapidly transformed their economic and institutional structures by developing technology gained an advantageous position over others. We can cite the Industrial Revolution in the 18th and 19th centuries, which propelled Britain to global leadership, and the electricity, automobile, and mass production technologies of the 20th century, which led the USA to global leadership, as examples. Technological leaps not only accelerate economic growth but also facilitate control over global trade and finance networks, achieving military superiority, and establishing global hegemony. Hegemonic powers that fail to maintain their leading positions in technological development – as in the case of Britain – lose their global position when they fail to catch the next wave of technological advancement.
With each major technological leap, a gap has emerged between the countries that first implemented these technologies and those that lagged behind. Countries that lagged behind were able to close this gap by preventing the situation from worsening through correct policies and catching the next wave of technological breakthroughs in time. But for most of those left behind, the gap hasn't closed; successive technological revolutions have deepened the divide with "developed" countries. This latest wave of technological breakthroughs should also be carefully monitored in terms of the changes it will create in the global system.
From a geopolitical perspective, some characteristics of AI differ significantly from previous revolutions. Those who take the lead first in AI can achieve a much more lasting advantage compared to previous industrial revolutions. This is because AI technologies are extraordinarily capital-intensive; however, the cost of providing services to new users once systems are established is extremely low.
Network effects and "lock-in" mechanisms, which describe users becoming dependent on the system, reinforce this advantage, strengthening the "winner takes all" dynamic. This cycle transforms technological leadership into a self-reinforcing structure over time. More users generate more data; more data models are developed; and better models attract more users. Similar to the network effects seen in Google's search engine or Microsoft's Windows ecosystem, very serious barriers to market entry are created. To break this cycle, newcomers must not only develop similar technology but also overcome these powerful network effects. Ultimately, the size of capital, data, network effects, and lock-in mechanisms increase the likelihood that the leading countries and companies in AI will maintain their positions until the next technological revolution.
Model development capacity, chip manufacturing, cloud infrastructure, and data access are concentrated in the hands of a few large companies. OpenAI, NVIDIA, Microsoft, Google, and large Chinese tech companies will have geopolitical consequences from this enormous economic sphere of influence. Furthermore, the very rapid spread of AI challenges the adaptation capacity of individuals, companies, and governments, while empowering leading countries and companies to set standards.
Another characteristic of AI is its need for vast energy and water resources. This creates a new geopolitical dimension: countries with advantages in energy and water resources can gain a strategic advantage in AI infrastructure. For the common future of humanity, this issue needs to be addressed alongside global warming and ecological problems. Technological revolutions also transform military technologies. Just as gunpowder or nuclear technology transformed warfare, we must be prepared for a similar impact from AI.
Viewing AI solely as a productivity software is equivalent to viewing railroads in the 19th century as "just a faster horse-drawn carriage." Today, we debate "which AI application is better" and leave the discussion to engineers and technology enthusiasts. But the issue is too important to be left to technology connoisseurs and has the potential to affect everyone's lives.
Considering AI's tendency to concentrate on capital, infrastructure, and data, it is clear that this technology could also reshape international power relations. Developed countries and large technology companies could establish new types of dependencies and asymmetrical power relations over other economies through AI. If we don't engage in this discussion today by including different segments of society, tomorrow we may find ourselves retrospectively debating a world where new dependency relationships have already been established. Because AI is shaping not only technology but also the economic and geopolitical power architecture of tomorrow.
