Trump has signed another unprecedented rule, requiring Nvidia and AMD, which sell H20 and MI308 chips to China, respectively, to pay a 15% share of their revenue to the US government. The ethical and legal merits of this are debatable, but ultimately, the US will receive a share of the strategically important goods sold to China. Whether the companies in question pass this difference on to Chinese buyers or pay it out of their own margins is unclear, but in any case, it's not a very good situation.

Nvidia's statement stated, "We are operating within the framework of government regulations." But this is more like—I don't know if you can call it legalized bribery—buying a gift card for a birthday child when you don't know what to buy. Apparently, Trump didn't know how to get his share, but he imposed a 15% fine to fit the bill.

At first glance, such a situation is a cause for concern for stocks, as it appears they will write off 15% of their revenue as expenses under the "Special Trump Tax" item on their balance sheet. 15% is a significant portion. The biggest risk is that this kind of government-private partnership business model will become a form of revenue sharing. Where is capitalism? If we consider the government a player in the corporate league, of course, the biggest player is setting the rules.

Funds, the largest players in the American stock markets, have recently been shifting their investment strategies. Hedge funds, which have been long in oil stocks and short in alternative energy since almost 2021, have been abandoning these strategies and reversing their positions over the past eight months.

Over the last three years, hedge funds were significantly more long than net short in oil stocks. During the same period, they were significantly more short than long in solar, wind, and electric vehicle stocks. But just before the start of 2025, the situation has changed in all the channels I mentioned. Net shorts in oil stocks are, albeit marginally, higher. In green energy, the long/short spread has begun to narrow. This suggests that while shorts have been decreasing there, longs have been increasing.

According to data, these funds, representing approximately $700 billion, have been closing their shorts in clean energy stocks in recent months and gradually buying them. In fact, I've been seeing this in some of the green energy stocks in my portfolio. A long-term bottom is forming in this industry. With Trump in power, it's very difficult to know when, how quickly, and to what extent this will happen.

We all know that green energy isn't Trump's favorite. But we also know that his favored oil companies are closely tied to oil prices. Another thing we know is that unless there are developments that will boost oil prices, prices will continue to fall for fundamental reasons. This will reduce the profit margins of companies in the oil business. Even if oil prices do jump, it will inevitably escalate global tensions, which will be detrimental to stocks. Ultimately, while it's difficult to predict Trump's future, we have some fairly certain opinions from other perspectives, and accordingly, oil stocks won't be anyone's favorite for a while.

Green energy stocks, while a key stock group for the future, are a group I can't quite trust in rising as much as I can be confident in oil's decline. But some are more confident than I am in this regard. For example, the number of short positions in a solar energy fund has fallen to 3%, its lowest share since April 2021. If you recall, green energy stocks were at historically high levels at that time. They shorted at very good points. Furthermore, the number of long shares in a wind energy fund reached a 2.5-year high just four months ago, meaning buying continues at full speed.

Regarding electric cars, I also said two years ago that I'd "erased these stocks from my watchlist for a few years." I don't think those few years have passed yet. While individual stocks may experience occasional gains, electric vehicles as a sector currently appears to be lacking in appeal. Therefore, wind and solar energy companies will likely remain the primary targets for funds.