Bitcoin does not look great right now. Bitcoin reached $10,498 level on Feb 13, 2020 and retraced by 18,45% since then. Is the bull market over? Is the party over? This is not the correct question? Zoom out and ask the correct question: İs this the last opportunity to buy Bitcoin at this cheap prices? Remember Bitcoin has made its golden crosses and  Bitcoin’s halving is set to take place in 84 days. Both are generally provides life time opportunity. Especially Bitcoin halving have a major implication to its hash rate, supply, and ultimately its price.

As you see on the graph below, Bitcoin couldn't sustain its higher highs and higher lows. Bitcoin made lower high at $9,950 levels. We broke our last low at $9,200. So, we break the uptrend, we are officially in a correction phase. So, it seems that uptrend broken but is now reversed, yet. 

As of writing, it is trading at $8,800 levels on Binance.com, 24-h lowest value is $8,531.

Conditions for Bull Market

We are officially in a bullish market when two things happen:

1- Golden cross

2- Price action above the 200 MA

Golden cross occured on Feb 18, 2020. In order to be in a bull market, we need to stay above 200 MA. Read more on this topic in my previous article. 

Moreover, we need to stay above the 21 weekly MA and it needs to act as a support in order for Bitcoin to sustain this bull market.

Although Bitcoin has retracet by 18%, 200 MA is currently still acting as a support.

Moreover, 21 week MA is action as support, as well. If Bitcoin breaks the 20 weekly MA, we will know that the trend is reversed.

Bitcoin Halving

As you know, the Bitcoin block mining reward halves every 210,000 blocks. On May 12, this year, the coin reward will decrease from 12.5 to 6.25 coins. Bitcoin’s halving is set to take place in 84 days. As you see the chart below, this will be the 3rd halving. Halving basicially cuts the supply of new Bitcoins in half, halving the miner’s block production rewards,

source: haberport.com

So, In 2009, Bitcoin mining rewards start at 50 BTC per block. Then on November 28, 2012, the first Bitcoin halving reduced mining rewards to 25 BTC. On July 9, 2016, second Bitcoin halving reduced the mining rewards down to 12.5 BTC. On May 12, 2020, the third halving will take place and  the reward will fall to 6.25 BTC. Bitcoin halving will occur every 210,000 blocks until around 2140, when all 21 million coins will have been mined.

We can easily realize that after the halving, Bitcoin made tremendous gains as you see the chart above. After the 2012 halving, the price of BTC rose from $10  to $1,038 in just one year, meaning a 9,336.36% increase in price. In July 2016, Bitcoin price went through another price surge. Bitcoin went up from $576 to $2,526 a year later on July 9, 2017. That’s a 288.60% increase. Source:blockgeeks.com 

As you see above, we need to zoom out and pay attention to the concept of market cycles. Bitcoin is at the critical support levels now. Taking Bitcoin's golden cross and Bitcoins halving into account, we may have life time opportunity ahead.

Thanks for reading. I hope you’ve found it helpful.

-- Since I am not a financial advisor, make your own research while you trade.  

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