Jerome says they are feeling neutral with the data from September, but they will have to adjust once the new numbers come in. Those updates were delayed because of the shutdown, so basically he is saying the picture is incomplete right now. He also mentioned they have already cut interest rates three times, but without fresh data it is hard to say how things line up, especially if cuts in two thousand twenty six happen again. In simple words, it is time for stress baby.
Someone asked why we saw such a strong jump in growth without seeing unemployment drop. Jerome said part of it is due to AI changing the way work scales. One major point he pushed was that everyone sitting at the fomc table agrees inflation is still too high. They all accept that the labor market has softened, and that the risks are rising. He even said the labor data we have might not be fully accurate. Payroll numbers might face deductions and later revisions.
He also said inflation can peak in the first quarter from goods because of tariffs if no new ones are announced. But he added that nobody can predict this properly and honestly no one has been able to predict it. That was a clean side jab at trump without saying the name.
Lastly someone questioned whether the new fed appointment is affecting his job. His answer to that was genuinely remarkable and that was…
