IT IS POSSIBLE TO DISCIPLINE AND CONTROL SOME SOCIETIES FOR SOME TIME, BUT NOT THE WHOLE WORLD ALL THE TIME.- GK Bhat, TARU Leading Edge, India
In a report from the Rockefeller Foundation and Global Business Network, the New World arrives sooner than we think and we are going to sketch it out for you. The information is based on research papers from experts on social and political fields of study as well as economists from various backgrounds. This article summarizes the Rockefeller Foundation Report. You can read the report here.
Four Different Futures
The four different futures are:
(a) Lock Step (where we are currently) - Tighter top-down government control, more authoritarian leadership with limited innovation and growing citizen push-back.
(b) Clever Together - Highly coordinated strategies emerge to address urgent and entrenched worldwide issues.
(c) Hack Attack - Economically unstable and shock-prone world in which government weaken, criminals thrive and dangerous innovations emerge.
(d) Smart Scramble - Economically depressed world where individuals and communities develop localized, makeshift solutions to a growing set of problems.
When we analyze any of the above four futures in a given scenario, an emphasis is put on how things unravel in the developed and developing world. While doing so, we should keep in mind the current state of affairs in a particular country or world-order despite their status of developed or developing. We also need to consider the cultures, beliefs and logic of people living in the jurisdiction of those governments. Whenever we make a statement, we seek to emphasize a characteristic. References to countries and dates are for hypothetical and/or predictive purposes of bringing the future to the present and not to convey actual facts.
The futures are placed on an axis with two uncertainties: a) political and economic alignment, and b) adaptive capacity.
The Lock Step
Most pandemic-prepared nations were overwhelmed by the deadly effect of the virus, infecting a large portion of the world population. People and goods came to a halt and global supply chains hang in the air. Local shops and offices sat empty for months. Disproportionate numbers died in Africa, Southeast Asia and Central America where official containment protocols were not as effective as anticipated. Few countries managed to curb the spread and China had the earliest post-pandemic recovery. National leaders flexed their authoritarian powers with rules and regulations - from mandatory wearing of face masks to temperature checks, sanitizing points and travel bans. This authoritarian control and oversight over activities of citizens remained in place or even intensified. Leaders took a firmer grip on power.
The situation was different with countries the developing world. The overall economic status and quality of life increased in countries with strong and thoughtful leaders. More authoritarian leadership was tragic. Irresponsible elites used their increased power to pursue their own interests at the expense of citizens. Strong technology regulations made innovation expensive and developing countries remained on the receiving end of technologies that others considered "best" for them. Developing countries with resources and capacity began to innovate internally to fill these gaps on their own. Unfortunately, entrepreneurs came on the short end. African sub-regional alliances became more structured and new partnerships grew within the continent. By 2025 people became weary of top-down control to let others make choices for them. Push-backs became organized and coordinated as people saw opportunities slip away in developing countries which in turn caused civil unrest. Some governments were brought down by the people and even those who are fond of stability and predictability became uncomfortable and constrained by tight rules and national boundaries. Sooner or later, it's going to hit the fan and disturb the neat order of world governments.
Clever Together
Majority of people believed that the global climate was becoming unstable which in turn pressured everyone's government to do something. The small attempts from organisations and institutions were not enough. A coordinated global approach might just be the solution. It started slowly and accelerated quicker than expected. Smart grids and bottom-up pattern recognition technologies were rolled out, producing real results. By 2022 there was a slowing in the rise of atmospheric carbon levels. Nation-states became less powerful with the strengthening of global architecture. Energy and water innovations for the developing world became a priority as it were thought to be the key to improving equity. Access to technology enabled developing countries to grow in their own right. The demand for solar energy in Africa increased and by 2025 Africa exported solar energy to South-Europe to earn valuable foreign currency. Solar-powered drip irrigation systems became popular in sub-Saharan Africa. Demand for everything grew exponentially. By 2028 it became clear that the world could not support the rapid growth.
Hack Attack
Government power starts to diminish and violence and crime increased and countries with ethnic, religious or class divisions show spikes in hostility. In Africa, fights for resources erupted along ethnic and tribal lines. Overtaxed military and police forces become less effective against growing criminal communities. Using second-hand aircraft, they began to transport all kinds of illegal trade between South-America and Africa over the Atlantic. Criminal networks became smart and reverse-engineered many products into poor quality and dangerous goods. Tainted vaccines entered the public health systems of several African countries. Mass deaths occur from a tainted anti-malarial drug. Public confidence in vaccine delivery diminishes and parents begin to neglect the vaccination of their children and infant and child mortality rates rose to levels not seen since the 1970s.
Hackers were also hard at work. Scams and pyramid schemes arrived in the mail on a daily basis. The brave ones attempted to take down corporations, government systems and banks via phishing and data heists. In their response, multinational corporations began to spruce up their defenses. Security measures and screenings tighten while companies seek to control the tiniest innovations. Generic pharma production begins to increase. Many new innovations are used as a bargaining chip for trade with other countries. Seals of safety are being hacked, putting authentic verification methods in jeopardy. Genetically modified organism crops and DIY biotech became backyard and garage activities, producing important advances.
Gated communities become the norm for middle-to-upper class people for a safe haven against surrounding slums. By 2025, it is standard to build a high-walled fortress, guarded by armed personnel. With a near standstill, people retreat to the familiar: family ties, religious beliefs, or even national allegiance. People trusted those who guaranteed safety and survival - whether it was a warlord, an evangelical preacher or a mother. The collapse of state capacity lead to a resurgence in feudalism. By 2030, the distinction between "developed" and "developing" nations no longer seemed particularly descriptive or relevant.
Technology trends and applications we might see are: synthetic chemicals of the nineteenth century, synthetic biology, weaponized biological pathogens, destructive botnets, the AK-47 remains weapon of choice for guerrillas, internet overrun with spam and security threats, ID-verification tech is everywhere, ID hacks in 2017 produced false identities still at large in the mid-2020s, cost of cosmetic surgery drops and become part of a lunchtime routine for the emerging middle-class.
Smart Scramble
Survival and success varied greatly by location - not just by country, but by city and community. Communities in failed states suffered the most with the poor growing poorer. The failure of political leadership and economic weakness made it difficult for people to rise above their dire circumstances. When cellphone towers or fiber optic cables broke down, repairs were delayed for months. Most innovation in better-off places involve modifying existing devices and technologies to adapt to a specific context.
Makeshift tech solutions addressing problems ranging from water purification and harnessing energy to better crop yield and disease control fill the gaps. The global medicine supply catches a dip, accelerating the emergence of locally bio-engineered super-strength homeopathic remedies which replace antibiotics in developing-world dispensaries. 3D-printing micro-manufacturing enables the fabrication of engine and machine components to allow "perpetual maintenance" to compensate for broken trade links. By 2022 returnee innovators struggle to expand sales beyond home markets. By 2025, collaboration finally starts to improve in the developing world. Venture capital spending within sub-Saharan Africa triples. Without major global economic integration and collaboration, many are concerned that good ideas would remain isolated, and survival and success remain a local phenomenon.
This article is a summary of the 54-page Rockefeller Foundation Report,
produced by the Rockefeller Foundation and Global Business Network in May 2010.
