So, futurism probably has a bad rap due to the fact that those who intend to see what the future potentially holds overlaps remarkably well with science fiction enthusiasts. Believe it or not, science fiction isn't all that popular as a genre. No. For Real. Don't look at me like that. This article lists Amazon book sales by genre. Know what the number one spot is at over one BILLION dollars in sales? Romance and Erotica. Number three in the charts? Science Fiction/Fantasy at 590 million.
Holy shit. Not only is science fiction slap-dashed together with Epic tales of wizards and elves, Boning and mushy crap takes the top position. If I didn't know otherwise, I'd feel like I'm living in a Bizarro Earth. Damn it, people who are not me! STOP LIKING THINGS I DON'T LIKE.
Side Note: Curious about the SciFi/Fantasy Distinction? Look at My Blog Title, and it will become clear. Does it have magic? It's Fantasy. Does it have lasers? It's science fiction.
In all seriousness, the visionaries make up only a few of the human population. People who look at the big picture and wonder what the trajectory is gonna be make up a relatively paltry number of Humanity. Now, I don't wish to inflate my own ego by making the assumption that I am one of these people. I'm just some guy that has an asshole opinion on the Internet. Delusions of grandeur were taken care of YEARS ago with proper medication and therapy.
Hold on just a sec. Mom asked me to take the trash out.
The Problem of The Thinkers and The Communicators.
Where was I? Oh yes, the Future and Fate of Humanity.
With so few people having the capability of foresight beyond their own noses, is it any surprise that oftentimes, we don't learn from historical precedent? That we muddle ourselves in Hubris, covered in a Dunning-Kruger Shroud? It's because people who do think of this type of stuff are in the minority, and (opinion only) they don't tend to be the most charismatic folks. You know that guy that wrote that MLP Clopping Slash Fiction in his basement? He probably thinks pretty deeply about a lot of things that are not nearly as disturbing as his sexual interests.
Do You Know What a "MLP Clopping Slash Fiction" is? You Probably think deeply too.
But I digress. The major takeaway here is that Nature is a Torrid Bitch that needs to be spanked. She doesn't care about your feelings or your precious tendies at the grocery store. We need to beat her at her own game, and in order to get started, we need to seriously consider what's at stake for Humanity. This time, more than any other in recent memory demands this and I demand this of my readers. Real talk, yo.
Thinking Systematically About Existential Threats.
If there's one thing that current events has shoved in our faces, it's that our way of life can be easily upended. Take a look; all it takes is a virus and people to react to a virus and we are suddenly running out of toilet paper and going nuts.
Shitting. Shitting Never Changes.
I think a scale is in order, maybe one that I can name after myself in a vain attempt to be awesome. Let's Call it the SkinnerCrypto Scale (SCS). The first major idea for the scale would be to recognize that In Modern Civilization, Death and Interruption of Infrastructure is The Main Indicator of Catastrophic Events. What I mean by this is that The way things are today in major "Developed" countries like the United States, UK and so on is that if there is an glitch in the supply chains, manufacturers, associated workforce and public resources, this will cause a marked affect in how life changing a catastrophic event is. From this point, I believe there are two major points that affect how infrastructure is affected:
1.) The Disrupting Event In Question
2.) How People Respond to the Disrupting Event in Question.
The things we want to consider is
Number of Deaths in Human Population Globally,
Disruption of Physical Infrastructure (Roads, Buildings, Air Ports, etc.),
Disruption of Supply Chains (Access and Distributon of Goods to Affected Areas), and
Length of Time That Decisions Affect Infrastructure and Economy, and Approximate Time To Achieve Normalization (Meaning, to get things back to how they were before the Disrupting Event).
With this in mind, I think the scale can look something like this:
SCS Level 1: Disrupting Event causes little to no interruption of Infrastructure and neglible number of deaths globally. Supply chains and economy might be affected by decisions in the very short term, but things are otherwise normalized within a week.
SCS Level 2: The Disrupting Event has a chance to kill LESS than 0.01% of the Human Population Globally (approx. <700,000) and cause negligible damage to physical infrastructure. Strained supply chains might occur due to workforce and demands public panic buying. Decisions may affect infrastructure and economy for longer than a month. Normalization likely to occur within 4 - 6 months.
SCS Level 3: The Disrupting Event has a chance to kill LESS than 1.0%, but MORE than 0.01% of the Human Population Globally (>700,000 and <70,000,000) and Causes minimal to moderate damage to physical infrastructure. Supply chains in some areas may be almost completely broken. Mass hysteria is likely in some areas. Decisions may affect infrastructure and economy for longer than a year. Normalization likely to occur within 2 - 3 years.
SCS Level 4: The Disrupting Event Has a Chance to kill LESS Than 5.0%, but MORE than 1.0% of the Human Population Globally (>70,000,000 and < 350,000,000) and causes moderate to severe damage to physical infrastructure. Supply chains are broken in several areas. Mass hysteria hits a high in several areas, to the point where martial law may be implemented by governments. Decisions may affect infrastructure and economy for more than a year but less than 3 years. Normalization likely to occur within 5 - 10 years.
SCS Level 5: The Disrupting Event Has a chance to kill LESS than 15.0%, but MORE than 5.0% of the Human Population Globally (>350,000,000 and <1.05 Billion) and causes severe to extreme damage to physical infrastructure. Supply chains are broken on a nation-wide scale in some areas. Lawlessness and the inability of governments to maintain cohesiveness is the state of affairs in some areas. Decisions that can be made may affect infrastructure and economy between 6 - 10 years. Normalization likely to occur within 20 - 25 years.
SCS Level 6: The Disrupting Event has a chance to kill LESS than 50.0%, but MORE than 15.0% of the human population globally (<1.05 Billion and <3.5 Billion) and physical infrastructure is irreparably damaged for a significant period of time in many places. Supply chains are decimated worldwide. Lawlessness and inability of governments to maintain coherence is the state of affairs in most areas of the world. Some areas are completely decimated, with few survivors struggling to meet subsistence levels. Normalization is still possible, but will take anywhere from 50 - 100 years.
SCS Level 7: The Disrupting Event is a Near Extinction Event. It has a chance to kill LESS than 90.0%, but MORE than 50.0% of the Human Population Worldwide (>3.5 Billion and <6.3 Billion), with physical infrastructure decimated in nearly all areas. Supply chains are decimated worldwide. Most areas are completely decimated without a chance to maintain any semblance of governance (if there's anybody left to govern) with survivors in extreme hardship, possibly unable to meet even subsistence levels. Normalization might not be possible, but if it is, it will take anywhere from 150 - 200 years or more. Know the phrase "take us back to the Stone Age"? Well Yabba Dabba Doo, Motherfucker. You're here.
What Can We Do?
I think there is a lot of stuff we can do once we know the type of stuff that can happen. Based on my little scale here (extrapolating for population sizes and such):
The Black Death Plague would have been somewhere between an SCS Level 5 and an SCS Level 6 Event In Eurasia.
The Spanish Flu Pandemic (considered one of the deadliest in modern history) would have been somewhere between SCS Level 3 and SCS Level 4
World War II would have been an SCS Level 4 Event.
The Current COVID-19 Pandemic actually puts us at roughly an SCS Level 2 Event
SCS Level 1 events probably happen pretty frequently, whereas a level 2 - 4 event happen every generation or so, and a Level 5 to 6 event happens every couple thousand years. Fortunately, Besides maybe the hypothetical Toba Catastrophe, Humanity has never experienced a level 7 event. The Dinosaurs did though.
We need to think of the future, and we are really, REALLY bad at doing that. We need to think about how we get our stuff, how we will continue to get our stuff if the shit hits the fan, and how we are going to leverage our ever expanding knowledge of science and technology to make these things happen. Only through these things will humanity have a chance to reach the stars and continue to live well and longer. Think about it.
Thanks for reading, I REALLY REALLY appreciate it. Consider giving me a follow here if you like my stuff, or maybe even on HIVE BLOG or Possibly even UpTrennd if you are so inclined. I'll be putting out regular content and platform exclusive content on each.
Until next time, keep your eye on the markets and think about what we can do to make keep humanity going. We are getting lucky this time around, all things considered.