Sappy Seals to 10E?

Sappy Seals to 10 ETH?

The changing of the guard in the NFT market is complete with #TheFlappening, but there is a Penguin adjacent NFT collection that may actually outpace the entire market for the rest of this bull run. Sappy Seals have lately been the most upwardly mobile and socially powerful PFP collection in all of web3. Seals have taken over Twitter timelines and partnership wishlists, and they seem to be just getting started.

I want to take a look at Sappy Seals next to similar collections of the past bull run to see if Seals can move from its current floor price of ≈ 1.7E to 10E. Yes, this was an undervalued collection for a long time, but you still might be early. Let's take a look.

The Project

The hype behind Sappy Seals is all community, because it's definitely not the art. The PFPs are cute and funny but nothing to write home about. Founders like Zab will purposefully use this kind of style to signal this isn't an art project, but a community/tech project. This can work if the core team behind the project has the chops to build a unique product, whether game, community or backend tech.

Comparison: Bored Ape Yacht Club 

As a game/community project, the Seals remind me of super early BAYC, before there was any talk of celebrity endorsements or Sotheby's auctions. The Discord was lit up with people just having fun with each other. Yes, there was price talk, but the reason BAYC was able to keep its momentum and move into the double digit ETH range was that a like minded group of people were bonding over a shared culture. 

The Seals actually have a better culture than BAYC at the beginning, possibly because Seals did not have that once in a lifetime alignment of the stars like BAYC did. Seals built their community up through very hard times (and low FPs), so the community members you see with 12 or 52 Seals are the ones who actually deserve them because they accumulated and stuck around. Because Seals had a longer time to build that culture base, it has more of a launchpad to take off than BAYC did.

The Product

Community in web3 is best when focused on a product shipment. Sappy Seals has that in the Pixlverse, a metaverse for the Seals that is promised to expand into a full gaming experience over the next "months, and hopefully years" according to founder Zab in Discord.

Comparison: Azuki Garden

When the Garden was announced for Azuki, it was heralded by the same thing Sappy Seals currently uses to build hype — a great looking website and tons of lore. Azuki took their time filling out the Garden with actual stuff to do; the team's focus was definitely in fundraising. The community didn't seem to mind as Azuki sold them golden skateboards and a second Elementals collection that looked exactly like Azukis, and the price of the core NFT rose to double digits and stayed there for quite some time.

The Pixlverse is a grand idea, but Seals have an advantage in that the founder Zab exhibits the trollish personality that dampens expectations rather than heightening them. And as great marketers will tell you, underpromise and overdeliver. Because Zab is delivering his promises with a sarcastic nonchalance, the Seals community can't really be disappointed by what Pixl Labs is doing as long as they are delivering competent work. So far, they have delivered work at the pinnacle of web3, which means there is a narrative for the Seals NFT to continue growing.

The Potential

For all "blue chip" NFTs, the first push to 10 ETH was all potential. There are actually plenty of projects that couldn't touch a fraction of their all time highs after they delivered. Cyberbrokers, Mekaverse, and so on — all achieved massive FPs when they had nothing but generative NFTs. As an example, Mekaverse, which sold at 7E at one point, can't break 0.1E even though the team has full games.

Sappy Seals actually have a bit of an advantage here because the web3 landscape has changed. Investors are no longer willing to shell out $20,000 for an NFT and a dream. Seals are also one of the few projects that came out of that meta and have steadily increased in FP since then, actually achieving all time highs today as I write this (1.7E).

Comparison: Moonbirds/Proof

Perhaps the best known project that was high on potential but delivered next to nothing was the Proof/Moonbirds debacle. Sappy Seals falls short in this comparison, because the only way you could drum up hype like Kevin Rose was to be cliqued in with the richest and most well connected ETH moguls — the ones who literally turned back the clock on Ethereum to keep from losing money in the ETH DAO hack that created Ethereum Classic. But it just goes to show you how high potential can go in this space.

Although Sappy Seals can't drum up the same "potential energy" that boosted Proof and Moonbiards to double digit ETH status, Sappy Seals aren't nearly as diabolical and incompetent as Kevin Rose, either. So the Seals don't need as much hype, because they are already on the road to building something substantial. The vibe in the Seals Discord seems to bear that out as well. If a 1E collection is getting almost as many partnerships and whitelists as a 100E project (Proof), you can bet the Seals have a good shot at making 10E a reality.

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