As Brexit has happened and talks are well under way it would serve us well to have a gander across the channel, on the continent. France, a cornerstone of the EU, seems like an unlikely candidate for the next country to leave the union, provided that happens at all, but a quick look at internal matters and the direction of the EU is bound to change that trajectory.

To get to the act of leaving we first have to understand the underlying issues. In France the approval of the EU is rather low. In a 2016 poll, over 60% of Frenchmen surveyed viewed the EU in unfavorable terms, of course things can change but this is further backed up by the elections of 2017 and the yellow vests movement. In 2017 the National Front, a largely Eurosceptic party, won a significant amount of seats and later the popular yellow vest protests had many echoes of anti EU sentiments.

Just because the EU is disliked does not however mean that France is about to set after Britain and, unless something happens, that is unlikely to change. In similar surveys it was found that only around 40% of people wanted a Frexit. Now the topic of Brexit and the future of the EU comes in to play, if the Brexit process goes well and Britain sails away without much harm done, it is likely that the fears of some will be quelled, and support for a Frexit will increase. On the other hand if the Brexit ship sinks, opinion is bound to fall. 

The EU can do much to anger the French people, article 13 for example, but for the foreseeable future a Frexit seems unlikely.