Let’s discuss some technical based on the halving analysis with Bitcoin.
At present while I am writing this article, Bitcoin (BTC) is trading $ 25854.
The RSA is found at the mid region ( around 50) in the one day chart and starch RSI is in the deeply oversold region.
If we consider the halving analysis based on last year, this week is going to be the final dump for the BTC. The last week dump is most probably the final dump and it could be the bottom price for BTC. We could not see any further dump with datas with regard to the last year halving analysis. If we can able to manage without any further dump in this week, we can expect by 95% that BTC price will go up.
This is purely based on the halving analysis theory. It has not considered any other analysis. If you could integrate any further analysis you can do so.
I think the market has taken its bottom already.
The Bitcoin halving is when the reward for Bitcoin mining is cut in half. Halving takes place every four years. The halving policy was written into Bitcoin's mining algorithm to counteract inflation by maintaining scarcity. Bitcoin will be halved every time 210,000 blocks have been mined. The first Bitcoin halving occurred on Nov. 28, 2012, after a total of 10,500,000 BTC had been mined. The next was on July 9, 2016 while the latest was on May 11, 2020. The next is expected to occur in early 2024 and it is expected to happen around March 18, 2024.
If we see the one day chart, there are more probability to get the golden cross. The 200 day moving average could cross the 50 Day Moving average in the upside is called golden cross. But in the contrary, if we take out the one week chart the 50 day moving average has crossed the 200 day moving average in the downside- which is considered as depth cross.
Please do consider the Bitstamp chart over Binance Chart as Bitstamp chart had the datas from the good olden times. If you use Binance chart, the golden cross has already happened.
I also consider the market would take a direction on Tuesday. Because the Consumer Price Index (CPI) date of the US would be declared on this Tuesday.
Consumer Price Index Data
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and services. Indexes are available for the U.S. and various geographic areas.
This time in US, the expected CPI data is 6.2. If the data comes below 6.2, there would be super bullish; if the data in line with 6.2 there would be medium bullish; if the number would stand above there will be clear bearish.
If the market goes upward, there are higher chances BTC would go till $ 25200 gradually.
In contrary if the CPI details would be bad or higher than 6.2, the market would again take a downfall. There are chances to go down if the CPI data is coupled with any negative news, there are more chances that the BTC would go down to $ 20600-$19700-$ 18400.
So keep an eye on the forthcoming CPI data.
Based on the CPI data, better decide to enter long or do a scalp trade!