To open or not to open - That is the questions. But what is your answer?

By KnightMare | LearningCrypto | 6 Aug 2022

Sometimes on Youtube, videos pop-up of Magic The Gathering Alpha packs being opened. Some of them are hoping to hit the jackpot (e.g. Black Lotus) and some are just in it for the memories. Maybe some of them are just doing it for the views.

I then remember that I also have some Alpha packs left. Unfortunalty not Magic the Gathering, but Splinterlands. And not just Alpha, also some Beta packs. That got me thinking, should I keep them closed or try my luck and open them.

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During the SPT airdrop, there was value in keeping them, as you got some points for each pack that you had in your inventory. I was glad to keep them sealed then. Now that the airdrop has finished, they are not creating any immediate value.

Looking at the current price, the last Alpha was sold for 227 SWAP.HIVE or roughly $135 at time of writing. Hmm, not as much as a MTG Alpha pack, but still not bad compared to the $2 they originally went for. I also wonder if the introduction of the MODERN and WILD formats plays a role, as now ALPHA cards can only be used in WILD and have no role in MODERN.

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BETA packs are going for roughly 100 SWAP.HIVE at time of writing, approximately $59. Not the prices I remember them going for some months ago, most likely due to the introduction of the new formats.

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Now I know the prices of the packs, what could be the value if I open them? Using the pack value tool on Splintercards ( ), it shows that the ALPHA pack has an expected value of $ 2,793.848 and the BETA pack has an expected value of $44.90 . So that's a definite no for the BETA, but why is the ALPHA so high?

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Looking at the details, it's due to the gold cards being very expensive, especially the Legendary gold. Do I think I will get one? Well, looking at a 0.064% chance per pack, those are not odds that I like!
Unfortunalty there is no list I could find like Splinterstats:

So there it is. Do I keep the packs and hope a new airdrop comes again that gives them some passive value? Do I hold on to them, hoping their value increases? Or do I open them, and gamble that the individual cards have some value.

What would be your advice to me?
And if you haven't tried Splinterlands out yet, have a go, I´m sure you will enjoy it.

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