Introduction
Is former president Donald Trump really out of the picture? Is his influence on Congress non-existent? Well, this one person definitely believes that:
Between the second impeachment and the political fallout not to mention the numerous lawsuits against him that he is no longer protected from the guy is definitely getting his due. Congress has essentially shut him down and out and even though some try to say otherwise his influence on the hill is minimal at best.
It is definitely true that Trump does not have as much outreach as he had when he was in the White House. However, there are multiple indicators that suggest that his influence on the hill is far from minimal.
First, we need to define what it means when Trump's influence on the hill is minimal. Indicators that would suggest this hypothesis to be true include the Republican Party abandoning his agenda and the neocons/'Never Trumpers' being more favored than the 'Trumpian' Republicans by the constituents.
There are 3 recent events that strongly suggest the opposite of this claim of which I will elaborate on each in more detail:
- Liz Cheney drawing massive criticisms on her comments about Trump with some Republicans seeking to oust her from her leadership role.
- Mitt Romney receiving an ample supply of boos at the Utah GOP Convention.
- Trump endorsee, Susan Wright, winning the plurality of the votes in the Texas 6th District open primary while 'Never Trumper', Michael Wood, only received 3.19% of the vote.
Liz Cheney May Be in Big Trouble...
Recently, Liz Cheney made remarks that House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy and Senator Mitch McConnell are the leaders of the Republican Party, not Donald Trump during a GOP gathering focused on policy. She followed up with some other intriguing comments including describing Jim Banks' memo on how the party should appeal to the working class voters as 'neo-Marxist'.
This has led to the feud between her and a large branch of the GOP. Frustrations at her antics were described to be at "a boiling point" by one Republican lawmaker. In response, top allies of McCarthy are now seeking to remove her from her leadership position in the party. Cheney did survive a secret vote back in February by a count of 145-61. However, it has gotten bad to the point that even some of her supporters are turning against her.
And the group that seeks to remove Cheney isn't just some fringe niche group. To quote The Hill:
The developments suggest it is not just members of the conservative House Freedom Caucus who are pushing to get rid of Cheney; senior lawmakers in the 154-member Republican Study Committee, the largest GOP caucus on Capitol Hill, have been openly critical of Cheney and are now trying to orchestrate her removal.
Mitt Romney Gets Booed in Utah
Mitt Romney was elected to the US Senate in Utah in 2018. He has been very outspoken against Trump during his presidency and has voted to convict the former president in both impeachment trials. Utah is a very interesting state as it has a large Mormon population, so you'd think that because Romney is also a Mormon, he'd be welcomed with open arms. Well...
A very, very warm welcome from the Utah Republicans... /s
Don't think I need to say anymore about this.
Texas 6th District
On May 1, TX-06 held an open primary contest to replace the recently deceased Rep. Ron Wright. After polls closed, the former representative's wife, Susan Wright, received the plurality of the vote at 19.21% followed by Jake Ellzey (R) who won 13.85% of the vote. Trump did not endorse Ms. Wright until after early voting ended, as pointed out by 270ToWin, suggesting that she could have gotten a bigger share if the endorsement happened earlier. What was notable, however, was who did not make it to the runoff: Michael Wood.
Rep. Adam Kinzinger, who voted to impeach Trump following Jan. 6, endorsed Michael Wood, "calling for Republicans to turn away from Trump and reject conspiracy theories". How did that turn out? Well... Wood received a paltry 3.19% of the vote suggesting that the 'Never Trump' coalition of the GOP is extremely small in TX-06.
Not only that, but Republicans cumulatively outperformed Donald Trump's 2020 performance in the district with a very wide margin. Republicans received 61.9% of the vote to the Democrats' 36.8%. In contrast, Trump barely beat Biden in this district by 3 percentage points. FiveThirtyEight described TX-06 as an indicator for what may happen in 2022, but we have yet to see how the runoff race will go before we can make any conclusions.
Closing Thoughts
Based on these 3 recent events, the claim that Congress has shut Trump down and out does not hold up to scrutiny. Otherwise, we would be seeing McCarthy bending the knee to Cheney. Instead, many members of the GOP including some of her supporters see Cheney as an albatross. Mitt Romney, who has voted to convict Trump on both impeachment trials, was roundly booed at the Utah GOP Convention indicating a shift in the Utah GOP voterbase. Lastly, while the Texas 6th District race has not concluded, the open primary results showed massive over-performance from the Republican Party with the pro-Trump candidate taking the plurality of the vote and 'Never Trumper', Michael Wood, finishing an abysmal 9th.
We have yet to see if Cheney will actually lose her leadership position by the end of this month and how the TX-06 runoff race will go. That said, if Trump is such a massive liability to the GOP, then we wouldn't be seeing support for him within the party and significant opposition against the 'Never Trumpers'.
