KuCoin Weekly Technical Overview: Bitcoin Trading Above The $44k Level, What to Expect from BTC In the Upcoming Week?


The Bitcoin and the altcoin market are finally back on track with their predominant uptrend. With a breakout from the key resistance at $40,000, the BTC market is currently trading at $44,000 thereabouts. The same holds the case in Ethereum and other altcoins as well. The downtrend price action of most altcoins is aggressively transiting into an uptrend.

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The last couple of weeks has been intense for Bitcoin – in terms of the buyers pushing the market higher. Out of the three attempts to make a higher high from the Support at $30,000, the bulls have made a strong attempt to head higher on their third attempt. As retailers were anticipating the market to break below the Support levels considering the momentum weakening on the bulls' side, the short squeeze brought increased strength for the buyers to take the price higher.

BTC Technical Analysis

Just a week into August, BTC has hit a 3-month high of $45,355 on Sunday, surpassing the short-term psychological level of $45,000. This is a relief for most investors, especially since it had come under pressure at the start of August, dropping nearly 13% to lows of $37,481 on August 4, reigniting fears of another sustained bear run.

Short-term investors, in particular, have been in a buying mood. Tesla CEO, Elon Musk, who had promised a possible comeback of the cryptocurrency at Tesla about two weeks ago, is likely the primary reason behind this positive mood on the market. 

Ahead of this week’s inflation report, the current short-term momentum could either be derailed or extended. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics is scheduled to release July’s inflation report on August 11. The market consensus is that inflation will increase by 0.5%, pushing the CPI down from 13-year highs of 5.4% to 5.3%. 

Looking at the 4-hour charts, a breach above this Sunday’s high of $45,355 will face short-term resistance at these levels: 

  • R1 – $46,600
  • R2 – $47,400
  • R3 – $48,700

Should BTC adopt a short-term correction, we anticipate the support levels at:

  • S1 – $42,100
  • S2 – $41,100
  • S3 – $40,000

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Bitcoin Support Levels Based On Fib Extensions - 4-hour Price Chart | Source: BTC/USDT

Although BTC remained particularly resilient at the beginning of August despite the 51% attack on Bitcoin Satoshi Vision (BSV), in the long-term, the regulatory risks still pose a looming fear in the general market. China, the EU, and US regulators are not showing any signs of easing on the regulation front.

Looking at the daily BTC chart, BTC failed to breach the 200-day MA on Sunday successfully. The current recovery from the lows of $29,272 recorded on July 20 seems to be facing resistance around $45,000. A successful breach of the 200-day MA will be a solid confirmation of a longer-term bullish trend. In this case, we can expect the resistance level at around $56,100.

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Bitcoin Support Levels Based On Fib Extensions - Daily Price Chart | Source: BTC/USDT

In the long-term, BTC will face support levels at:

  • S1 – $39,200 
  • S2 – $35,100
  • S3 – $32,700

A break below the 50-day MA is bound to push BTC further downwards towards the $30,000 – which remains our critical long-term support level.

Conclusion

The fact that the bulls are back in business cannot be ignored. Also, as the entire crypto market is booming in the last two weeks, it is evident that the bull run is here to stay. As far as the bears are concerned, we expected a major reaction from the psychological $40,000 Resistance levels. But none of the moves from the bears got the price down greater than 10%, which appears odd on a price action aspect.

Considering the current price action, buyers ended the minute consolidation by stepping up at every discounted price. As a result, the market took Support at $38,000 and firmly breached through the resistance. However, it is important to note that it is against the market's price action principles to shoot continuously higher from the Support levels. Thus, based on the market's price action, there could begin a short-term retracement to the downside before the price climbs to the $50,000 mark. Stay tuned and watch the KuCoin Blog for more interesting and valuable educational content. All the best!

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