While some retail investors reduce their exposure during times of uncertainty, companies, ETFs, and governments accumulate. Data shows that this dynamic has already changed who actually controls the Bitcoin market.

Institutional weight in the Bitcoin supply

According to data from Binance Research released in May 2026, companies, ETFs, governments, and other institutional entities held approximately 3.88 million BTC , or 18.5% of the maximum limit of 21 million units that will exist.

But the most revealing number appears when decentralized finance protocols are excluded. In this case, the concentration drops to around 3.5 million BTC , which in practice represents 1 in every 6 bitcoins in the world in the hands of institutions.

ETFs and companies are driving concentration.

Binance Research breaks down the data by category. ETFs account for approximately 1.32 million BTC , equivalent to 6.3% of the total supply . Publicly traded companies hold approximately 1.24 million BTC, or 5.9%.

Strategy , on its own, held 818,334 BTC as of April 26, 2026, a position valued at approximately US$63.7 billion. The company represents more than 60% of all bitcoin held by publicly traded companies worldwide.

The structural change behind the numbers

Bitcoin was born with a decentralized base, formed by independent miners and individual investors. This composition has changed.

Spot ETFs, regulated products, and the corporate treasury model popularized by Strategy have transformed the asset. Today, asset managers, governments, funds, and infrastructure platforms are among the largest holders in the network.

In Brazil, the movement is still in its initial phase. Brazilian companies are evaluating the allocation of crypto to treasury assets, but the debate has already moved from speculation to concrete issues: governance, custody, accounting, and regulatory compliance.

Bitcoin is down 26% compared to gold, according to WisdomTree.

The institutional thesis gains a new component when bitcoin is compared to gold. In an analysis published in May 2026 in CoinDesk's Crypto Long & Short newsletter , Dovile Silenskyte , director of digital asset research at WisdomTree , presented the BiG (Bitcoin in Gold) model.

The model compares the bitcoin/gold ratio with what macroeconomic variables, such as real interest rates, dollar strength, and inflation, suggest as its relative value. On March 31, 2026, the actual ratio was around 15.6, below the value implied by the model of 21. This indicates that bitcoin was approximately 26% undervalued relative to gold .

What the model is not

WisdomTree does not present this as a bullish forecast. The point is about relative value , not absolute price.

The analysis considers three scenarios for the next 12 months. Without a new macroeconomic shock, the difference would tend to gradually close. In an inflationary shock , gold would benefit first, as it is more defensive. In a risk-averse environment, gold would maintain its lead and Bitcoin's recovery would be delayed.

Why do the two assets compete in the same space?

According to WisdomTree, the dominant narrative of treating Bitcoin as a highly volatile, risky asset underestimates its evolution. The asset is now competing with gold as a store of value sensitive to inflation, interest rates, and the dollar.

The difference lies in behavior: gold tends to be more stable and defensive. Bitcoin reacts more aggressively to the same variables, with greater volatility and greater potential for appreciation in favorable scenarios.

Retailers sell, institutions buy: what does this reveal?

The pattern observed in recent cycles is consistent. When the market falls or macroeconomic uncertainty increases, some retail investors reduce their exposure. During the same period, institutions increase their positions.

This behavior creates a structural effect: the net supply available for trading decreases . With ETFs and companies holding BTC off exchanges, selling pressure decreases. And the next round of demand finds less supply available.

This is not a guarantee of an increase. But it is the mechanism that institutional analysts use to justify long-term allocations, even in contexts of high volatility.