Does anyone truly believe the war would stop if Russia took all four of the Ukrainian regions it claimed in 2022?

​Every winter, the same discussion comes up: Russia is stuck, the cold weather will stall any major offensive, and a new mobilization might be needed, so perhaps Moscow should reconsider the war. But this misses the main point.

​Taking more territory is not the primary objective; it's simply a tool. Putin's real goal is to pressure Kyiv into accepting Russia's demands.

​One of those demands—though not the main objective—is to force Ukraine to formally give up the annexed territories in talks, admitting it can't win militarily. But Putin isn't fighting for land alone, even though he has a clear idea of the parts he wants. Land is important, but it's secondary compared to the bigger objective.

​The 2022 Istanbul draft agreements made this clear. The Kremlin's focus was on turning Ukraine into a demilitarized state, free of any Western military presence, and governed under political conditions satisfactory to Russia.

​Even if Russia fully controlled the four regions it annexed in September 2022, it would not mean a victory for Putin. Nor would it bring him closer to achieving his broader goals: keeping Ukraine out of NATO, limiting its armed forces, and pushing for political changes that benefit Moscow.

​When people only look at the front line and say Russia isn't winning (which is militarily true), they are missing the larger picture.

​Nothing stops Putin from continuing intensive strikes across all of Ukraine to pressure Kyiv to return to talks to end the war on exaggerated Russian terms.

​This will only change if Ukraine is able to launch a successful counter-offensive and retake the lost territory. However, such a move would also raise the risk of nuclear escalation.