Planning for the Unplannable: On CropBytes, Chameleons, and Ecosystem Effects

Planning for the Unplannable: On CropBytes, Chameleons, and Ecosystem Effects


 

The Game

 

CropBytes is an economic simulation centered around farming that will be blockchainized in the future on Tron, and which uses TRX as the main currency.  Users must grow crops to feed their animals, which in return produce game coins.  Game coins can be sold for TRX or used to buy next generation animals, and on and on.  CropBytes features an in-game exchange so that players can directly trade most assets. Super Heroes with special powers like automatic feeding will become NFTs in the future and potentially even head to head battle each other.  The in-game exchange also adds another in-game game, creating more pathways to returns.  Additional games are planned: fishing, horse racing, Super Hero battles, etc.

 

 

The Plan

 

The common refrain among CropBytes players is that you should DYOR to figure out what strategy is best for you, which is then usually followed by someone spouting off the core principle and importance of sustainability.  Since players constantly need water and feed for their animals they either have to produce those on their own (ie. own a well for water, fruit tree for fruit feed, carrot or corn) or buy them from the exchange.  That being said, there are a few assets that produce game coins and do not require water and feed. However, there are not that many and would require a significant upfront investment.

When I started playing CropBytes a year and a half ago the game was still in its infancy.  Like many investors, I didn’t know for sure that the game would attract enough users or have big enough pockets or developers that actually constantly improve their product.  (I still don't know if I don't the answer to some of the questions)  As a result, my strategy began with trying to accumulate as many assets with as little of an investment as possible. A year a a half later, I still don’t think I have deposited more than 250 TRX.  So how did I go from nothing to a farm ranging in value from 14,000-16,000?

Two simple answers: start small and gradually grow.  Shouldn’t that always be the strategy with investments?  I began with acquiring the assets of land and animals.  Over time the number of animals grew.  This presented two opportunities to me: first, accumulate game coins from animals; second, trade animals to earn TRX to cover the cost of buying water and feed.  I now have enough game coins to either buy a second generation animal or sell them for TRX I can exit with as profit or reinvest into other assets…more on this to come.  Although I couldn’t always cover the costs of water and feed by trading, clearly the frequency and amount of deposits were relatively small.  

CropBytes players should always remember something I am calling “ecosystem effects.”  Although the developers describe this game as an economic simulator, it also does a decent job of simulating environmental dynamics.  For example, the number of crops grown effects the time it takes to grind your crops into feed at the mill.  More crops means more people grinding, which means you have to wait longer to grind.  This forces people to buy feed from the exchange, driving prices up.  Planting crops, growing fruit, and/or feeding animals consumes a lot of water, which leads in turn increases water prices.  These effects can sometimes be immediate and sometimes lag days or weeks later.  But, because of the interconnectedness of the ecosystem, increases in one area often cause increases or decreases in others.  

So how do ecosystem effects relate to the plan of attack?  Adaptability.  While my original plan of starting small and growing gradually provided a lot of flexibility, it was often directionless. I was missing a win condition, a strategy I could use to help guide my adaptation. I was also growing faster than my farm could produce.  With that in mind, rather than accumulating a few of many different types of animals, I decided pivot and instead focus on one kind and use the remaining animals to pay for self-sustainability.  To be more specific, instead of owning chickens, goats, cows and pigs, I sold those animals, and the game coins they generated, to buy a fruit tree and well.  (And- of course- trading as much as possible along the way)  With land and fruit trees my feed is covered.  Obviously the well provides water.  By limiting the number of animals I have to feed and give water to, I will be able to sell the excess produced.  In the future I will be able to breed male and female horses, providing me with with a niche that I can continually grow without having to invest more money.  Also, by choosing horses instead of any of the other animals, I have a connection to future in-game games.  

Adaptability to ecosystem effects can also be applied to trading in the exchange as well.  Swings with certain assets predictably lead to changes in others.  Players can capitalize on volatility in the first asset (ecosystem cause) and second (ecosystem effect).  If corn production drops, you can capitalize on the resulting increase in prices. If corn production increases, you can trade the rising cost of water.  If water prices inflate, cost of fruit feed fluctuates.  Action-reaction.  Not to mention that fact that the game is still in development and by no means a finished product. As new games, features, asset classes, or whatever get added to CropBytes you owe it to your investment to rethink things.  

 

But…

 

When I started CropBytes was in its infancy.  It’s now a toddler. You don’t have the same opportunities that I did.  Prices of original assets are higher.  Not all assets are currently available for trade.  While all of that is true, an absolute beginner can still execute my same plan at a similar and reasonable cost.  How?  First, take advantage of the free trial and reward.  New users get a 7 day free trial.  They will be given some tasks to complete.  Upon completion, which requires a purchase, farmers receive a free random asset valued at up to 500 TRX.  If you’re not willing or unable to buy assets from the exchange, three starter packs are available. The large pack is recommended since it is functionally a self-sustaining farm.  Even the small starter pack is a sufficient beginning since it provides a plot of land.  For those people playing the starter small or medium pack, you either need to trade to cover the additional costs of feed and water, or plan to make micro-deposits to cover the costs on days that trading doesn’t.  Which ultimately leads to my biggest suggestion of all, which is to be adaptable to game and market conditions.  Trading alone could provide you with enough profit to earn or grow your farm.  But people who lock into one strategy or asset class miss opportunities that flexible farms provide.  You don’t need to be a whale or the best trader in the world to earn.  You just need to pay attention to trends and find the likely ecosystem effects that will follow.  

On the other hand, changes to the game and in the number of players are much harder to predict.  As the number of CropBytes grows, demand for asset classes rise and fall.  Chickens and goats give way to cows and pigs.  Lakes.  Islands.  SuperHeroes!!!  As CropBytes evolves in chaotic ways, players should become chameleons to it.  While we don't know exactly what the game will look like after it hits the blockchain, we do know that it won't look the same as it does now.  Control what you can, like the ecosystem effects that are predictable.  Don't get locked into one strategy so tightly that you can't adjust with the game.  And plan for the unplannable by staying adaptable, flexible, and liquid.  Become chaos to defeat chaos.  

 

 

 

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justanotherblog
justanotherblog

I wanted a place where there might actually be a few readers so that I could share my investment experience, what I've learned, and give some advice.

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