The only way to describe what is going on in Southeast Asia is a rather simple term but it hits the nail on the head. Southeast Asia is a mess. When looking over foreign power options in the area the options are limited at best and more realistically they just do not exist. Myanmar is pretty resilient to sanctions much like North Korea is due to how Myanmar was heavily sanctioned during its time as the Khmer Rouge and how that regime caused unexplainable death, destruction, and misery to its own people.

That is not to say it is not becoming very very clear that something is going to change and it is going to change soon. See when all of this upheaval really was taking off an important member of the area was really MIA. India was having to deal with a COVID wave crisis that honestly makes the US waves look not so bad. I never in a million years would think I would be hearing the horrific details of the number of bodies that were floating both in the rivers and dumped along the banks due to the inability to handle the death toll. Thankfully though India has been able to get a much better grasp of the situation within it boarders. 

With the situation improving in India they are now better able to deal with what is going on with their bordering neighbor to the east. In the last year India has had increasingly difficult times with their neighbors however it was mostly limited to archrival Pakistan and China. Pakistan has been a long time rival just take a quick glance at any point in history since Pakistan and India gained their independence from Great Britain. Kashmir is of huge importance to both Pakistan and India with both claiming it in its entirety however India controls roughly half with Pakistan controlling a third and China controlling the rest. It seems we have become accustom to thinking that if India is having an issue with someone it is Pakistan however history tells us that really India has had a problem with almost all of their neighbors. 

Issues with China seem to wax and wane depending on the year and since roughly 2017 it has been an increasingly hot issue. Last year alone you had fights break out between the two countries troops with Chinese military personal beating 20 Indian soldiers to death with clubs that had nails coming out of them. It was honestly amazing that neither side resorted to gunfire and instead used physical attacks. Since this most resent outbreak though military build ups have been occurring on either side as the border situation has never fully been ironed out to where both sides agree. At this point looking at India and its neighbors already you have the West and now the North iffy situations at best and possible powder kegs that could lead to massive massive military action and an untold number of deaths. 

This now leads us to the East where now Myanmar is suffering from massive internal issues leading to people fleeing from Myanmar into India. Already it is estimated 16,000 people have fled into India and estimates say up to another 100,000 could arrive. East India has had previous issues with uprisings against the central government and while India has welcomed the refugees in the same breath they warned that if the refugees cause uprising in East India problems will occur. If these issues were to occur I would be willing to bet my bottom dollar that both Pakistan and China jump at the chance to maneuver troops and or people into places that continue to tip the balance of thing into their favor. It wouldn't even surprise me if the two sides teamed up to even do as. This could also be a HUGE reason why China has been so hands off with Myanmar and has been willing for its businesses to be burned because they could get back at India through this distraction.

The reason why I do not however see this fully playing out like Pakistan or China would like is as soon as India has issues India will get the military help they want. Previous times have had India being turned away by the Western powers so that Pakistan would be an ally in the Middle East. Times have changed though and India is being seen more and more as a bulwark against Chinese aggression in the area. This has led to the US military coming out in support of India and working together with them in mountainous areas...… a thinly veiled comment about China to say the least. I am willing to go out on a limb here and saying I do not think this is where China would like to make its final stand as the South China Sea is much more logical for them. The risk of further escalations with the US is way to much for them along with other countries like Thailand, Japan, and Australia coming to India's need. 

With the sides roughly taken as is I expect over the next few weeks they become more public in their appearance. I also expect India to start weighing in on Myanmar and apply pressure themselves. If Myanmar refugees end up causing issues with India it was only a year and a half ago that India went into Pakistan with fighter jets and bombs them. Right now the heavy weaponry and air craft is what is keeping the Junta in control so if India comes in and wipes it out or worse provides weapons to counteract the Juntas weapons Myanmar's Junta would quickly fall into a deep deep hole. They are not even close to having the people on their side as it is still the case that the cities under their "control" are really protesting by not doing anything and causing grid lock while armed rebel groups go in and hit military and police targets before fleeing back into the jungle. 

Since ASEAN or the Association of Southeast Asian Nations have shown practically no ability to get anything done India appear to be the next likely choice to force something. The last thing they want is to be surrounded by border issues and they will end up putting their foot down when it comes to the mess in Myanmar as it is the much easier issue to settle before Pakistan and China.