This time is different, right?
People enter the Bitcoin market full of hopes and dreams. They’ve heard the stories of people becoming rich in this market and doing it very quickly. They’ve been told from Bitcoin OGs in the space that if they just ignore price action and continue to buy, they can have the same type of results. They’ve been fed the now mythical theory that eventually Bitcoin will cause the largest transfer of wealth the world has ever seen, and they can’t afford to be sitting on the sidelines.
To some, all of this might seem like an incredible fairy tale that has almost no chance of becoming true.
But the truth is that everything in the last several months seemed to be lining up perfectly for Bitcoin to do something very special.
Last year, the Bitcoin spot ETF was finally approved and it changed everything. With companies like BlackRock entering the market and now Wall Street having access to Bitcoin. The floodgates were officially open and it created unprecedented demand for BTC.
For the first time in its history, Bitcoin made a new all-time high before the halving even took place.
The halving by itself is enough of a bullish catalyst to ignite most bull markets. But in combination, these two catalysts had the entire market feeling extremely bullish.
Then Donald Trump was elected President in the US. Running on a campaign that was very friendly toward both Bitcoin and crypto. This had Bitcoiners dreaming of just how high prices could go this cycle. All of this would cause the price of BTC to soar up to $109k.
It appeared that Bitcoin couldn’t become more bullish, but then the announcement that sent shockwaves around the world took place.
Trump signed an executive order creating a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve in the USA with plans to acquire more BTC through budget neutral methods. He also declared a digital asset stockpile that would hold onto other cryptocurrencies.
Any normal person would expect this type of announcement to cause the price of Bitcoin to go parabolic. After all, this seemed to be the holy grail that many Bitcoiners had been dreaming of for years. The US had finally publicly announced they were in Bitcoin, with plans to acquire more. Nation-state game theory would finally begin.
However, since the Bitcoin Strategic Reserve announcement, BTC’s price has been dropping like a rock. Falling as low as $78k, and it might go even further.
This has to make you wonder. If this type of an announcement can’t raise the price of BTC and create FOMO. What can?
The answer is that Bitcoin’s price performance has everything to do with the current world macro situation.
We are in very uncertain times and uncertainty is kryptonite to financial markets. Trump seemingly trying to tariff each and every country, even allies, has sent the market into a state of panic. The never-ending war between Russia and Ukraine is also having the same effect.
The truth is that people around the world are hurting financially. We are still dealing with the unprecedented inflation that took place during the COVID pandemic, and people haven’t recovered. They just don’t have as much expendable money as they had in the past.
I’m a firm believer that this Bitcoin bull cycle isn’t finished, but it is definitely being postponed from all those macro events I just mentioned. Once the tariff situation begins to settle down, that is the moment when Bitcoin will begin to pump.
When in doubt, just zoom out.
Bitcoin’s future has never looked more bullish. It will just take some time for the price to reflect that. Once the price begins moving, we will all wish that we had bought more Bitcoin.
How about you? Do you think this Bitcoin cycle is finished?
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