There are few financial markets that are as volatile as the Bitcoin market and that makes it incredibly difficult to predict what will happen to the price in the future. The clearest evidence of that was all of last year. As we entered 2022, Bitcoin was fresh off of setting a new all-time high price of $69k. Excitement was everywhere, and the predictions of where Bitcoin’s price may go during the year were bullish. Conservative analysts were predicting a price of $100k, and more optimistic analysts were predicting much, much higher. As we know now, the year was a disaster and Bitcoin’s price went down only since that moment.
If we learned anything last year, it is that Bitcoin is unpredictable and that perhaps the safest mindset is to always be expecting the unexpected. At the beginning of 2022, everyone was excited about what Bitcoin was about to achieve, but the year was a disappointment.
Oddly enough, Bitcoin is already surprising everyone again in 2023. As we began this year, the entire crypto market was depressed and extremely bearish. We had seen fraud, countless insolvencies, crypto lending becoming nearly extinct, and also the collapse of the 2nd largest crypto exchange. Many people were not only bearish but were declaring that Bitcoin and crypto would never be able to recover from this. That the Bitcoin dream was finished. The price of Bitcoin fell to the mid $15k level and then suddenly everything began to change. The price of BTC bounced and began to rise. It kept rising to a level that caused large amounts of shorts against BTC to be liquidated, which caused the price to soar even higher.
In just a couple of weeks, Bitcoin’s price catapulted up to nearly $24k, and the entire mood of the market has changed. Before it seemed nearly everyone was either predicting that BTC’s price would either be moving sideways this year or going down to $10k. However, there is now talk and hope that perhaps this upstart to the year is the beginning of something special. Perhaps Bitcoin will continue to recover and do much better than we could have imagined. While Bitcoin is an untamed beast that is unpredictable in its movements. Today I will be attempting the impossible and making my own end-of-the-year price prediction for Bitcoin.
Please keep in mind that this is only my prediction and isn’t financial advice. It’s likely that I will be completely off with my prediction, but it will still be fun to talk about.
The fact of the matter is that Bitcoin’s price should be much higher than it actually is. This is due to all of the “self-inflicted” wounds in the crypto industry that happened last year. It’s my belief that if those events hadn’t taken place, Bitcoin’s price would have never dropped below $25k, and would probably be sitting at $35–$40k right now with recent market upswings. Years from now we will look back at Bitcoin’s price of $16k and say it was a once-in-a-lifetime buying opportunity. I hope that many of you reading this article were able to take advantage of it. Without this constant downward price movement and panic in the market, that will help the price of Bitcoin continue to recover.
Unfortunately, Bitcoin’s price fate has to continue to contend with outside macro factors. 2022 was a year where the FED aggressively rose interest rates which crushed financial markets, including Bitcoin. It appears that this could soon be coming to an end, or at the very least they will be less aggressive about it. Either option will be great for Bitcoin’s price.
While many Bitcoin maxi’s won’t want to hear it, Ethereum could have a large effect on Bitcoin’s price as well. Last year the Ethereum merge didn’t see the huge effect on the price that many were expecting, especially with EIP 1559’s ETH’s burning mechanism continuing to take place. Of course, this was due to the calamity in the markets at the time. However, as time goes on I think this will continue to have an effect on the markets, which will have an effect on Bitcoin as well.
The giant lurking in the shadows is the Bitcoin halving that will take place approximately in May 2024. This is always what jumpstarts the next bull run, and typically Bitcoin’s price does well leading up to the hype of the event. With Bitcoin’s price currently at nearly $24k, it gives me chills to think about where the price could go after the next halving takes effect and the bull cycle begins.
There are also surprises or sudden developments that could change everything as well. Similar to what happened when Microstrategy and Tesla bought Bitcoin, or when El Salvador made BTC their legal tender. The El Salvador Bitcoin bond is something that is extremely underrated and could have a much larger effect than most anticipate. Especially if it is a success, as it would be a blueprint for other developing countries to follow. There could be other surprise announcements of other countries making Bitcoin legal tender in their country, or a huge company such as Apple or Amazon finally implementing Bitcoin into their stores. I’m looking forward to the Bitcoin 2023 Conference in Miami and am anticipating some great announcements to come from that as well.
Now let’s finally move on to my end-of-year prediction for Bitcoin. As I mentioned before, the price of Bitcoin at the time of writing this article is about $23.5k. Just a few weeks ago I was feeling bearish and felt that this year would be a year of sideways price movements. I won’t lie, I was excited to accumulate as much as I possibly could at those price levels. And so the recent price increase is bittersweet. I’m always happy for the price to increase, but it also means that accumulating significant amounts of BTC is becoming more difficult as well. I have flipped bullish for the remaining of the year. I don’t see Bitcoin making a new all-time high this year. But Bitcoin reaching $45–50k is definitely a possibility. Which is only about 2x from the current price. Either way, if Bitcoin’s price goes up or down, I will continue accumulating.
How about you? What are your 2023 Bitcoin price predictions?
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