Looking back over the first six months of the year, Bitcoin happens to fit nicely inside an arc. An arc?, after all this!? Yes, an arc. An arc with four taps to break out and three taps trying to break down.
But first, if you've come here for financial advice, you are in the wrong place, there will be no entry points revealed in the content below. If you are interested in technical analysis and forming your own conclusions based on my research, you are right where you want to be.
The good news is that, as of late, Bitcoin is printing higher lows, which we observe to the right side of the arc. The 50-day EMA remains below the 200 day EMA. The 800 EMA is creeping up to $23k while the 200 EMA is resting right at about $40K, which has produced a solid ceiling going back to the mid-May crash. Otherwise, price has been relatively flat since dropping into the 32k-38k range.
The Fear and Greed Index has recovered to 21 since dropping into the single digits last week. This indicator attempts to gauge investor sentiment and is based on volatility, market momentum/volume, social media, surveys, dominance, and trends.
Oscillators reflect the Fear & Greed Index being parked below 25.
RSI is at 43.02, CCI at -62.20 and the MACD showing signs of recovery and then stalling.
Looking forward, a breakout out of the arc should make for a significant move. The direction of the move remains the million dollar question. A break down below $28k would give credibility to the bears predicting $20k prices before a recovery is possible and certainly box in the Fear and Greed Index below 25 for the foreseeable future, sending us into a bear market without further debate. A break above the arc sends price back above $40k which causes an interesting chain reaction ending in a golden cross of the 50 EMA above the 200 EMA. The bulls and bears continue to battle in the mid $30Ks. Neither side seems capable of holding the advantage for very long, we are witnessing a lot of chop on the charts for six weeks now.
If Bitcoin falls below $30k, the battle will be waged at $28k. A break below $28k also put a ton of down-pressure on the alts, sending them back to 2020 price points, as they are struggling to maintain levels around the Feb 8 opening, before Bitcoin printed huge gains resulting in retail FOMO in the form of aunts, uncles, nephews, and friends of old friends calling you for advice on Bitcoin after having not yet heard of "block chain" or "decentralized finance."
As always, keep your eyes glued to volume, even market makers have respect for investor sentiment at the end of the day. Hence, the "manipulation" you've been seeing just before close.
Happy trading, good luck.
