Disclaimer: This article is not intended to promote gambling of any kind, and instead is just my speculation of Rollbit’s token $RLB, and what it may or may not do in the future. Rollbit outlines clearly on its site and gambling services are not available to those living in certain jurisdictions so if you are considering gambling, please do so at your own risk.

Hey Folks, so in my last article I talked about #RWAs being one of the hottest narratives in Crypto, but perhaps one of the longest running narratives in crypto has been gambling. Over the past couple of years since I’ve been in Crypto, I’ve seen a lot of DeFi gambling projects come and go, or at the very least surrounded by dark clouds brought upon the likes of crypto sleuths like ZachXbt and Coffeezilla. Out of the rubble one of the newest and fastest “provably fair” growing projects out there is Rollbit, which seems to always pop up in my twitter feed.

What I’ll address in this article, are my thoughts about whether or not $RLB is worth the hype, or if it’s getting ready to release some hot air.

Let’s dive in shall we?

$RLB tokenomics

According to the whitepaper, the initial distribution of $RLB was given to NFT Rollbot stakers and through airdrops and giveaways:

With a total max supply of 5 billion $RLB this might seem like a lot, but since then more than 35% of total supply has been burnt, and furthermore according to their August 8th announcement, they reported that they would buy back and burn 10% of revenue from the casino, 20% from Sportbook, and 30% of its 1000x futures revenue via $RLB.

This announcement came after the fact that during their time with Solana, they originally reported that they had started burning as early as January 2022 on roughly a 6-month cycle, with a claim that they estimated that every year, that over 50% would be burnt in total supply each year. (more on this later.)

According to Etherscan at time of writing the total supply of $RLB was approximately 3,163,375,133, or in other words there is approximately 63.2% left of original supply. If you’re interested in seeing all the burn transactions on-chain, they’re all verifiable etherscan, and you can see that the burns are ocurring every hour:

In theory, the more the supply is reduced, the values of the remaining tokens should increase. I say “in theory” because this isn’t necessarily the way things play out — token price is more subject to buy and sell pressures and organically, the price of the burn should have been technically priced in when co-founder “Lucky” made his announcements of tokenomic changes back in August:

My Takes

The Buybacks help, but token burns aren’t causing $RLB to pump: As I mentioned before, Rollbit migrated to Ethereum back around June 2023 — at this point a reported 35.51% of the total token supply was burned. That means starting from January 2022 to June 2023 during their Solana days (17 months), they burned an average of roughly 104 million $RLB a month:

Comparing the data available on etherscan, from June 2023 to September 2023, it appears that they’ve burned an average of 20.4 million $RLB a month — a figure (barely 20%) that’s significantly less than what they were burning before. If you take a look again at the price chart above, you’ll see now that it doesn’t make a whole lot of sense for why $RLB has jumped up so significantly high in price. This leads me to my second point…

Now probably isn’t the time to buy-in because $RLB is most likely overpriced: Whether it’s FOMO or from pure price speculation, if $RLB’s impressive price action is due to Lucky’s announcement, it seems that the market didn’t do its homework to see how the tokenomic changes were actually going to effect its circulating supply. If Lucky said instead: “Hey we’re going to significantly decrease the amount of tokens we’re going to burn by 80% — I’m assuming that the market may have not have taken the news so kindly.

Rollbit is still a killer platform: Let me be clear that in no shape way or form am I knocking on Rollbit as a platform. Just looking at it from a revenue perspective, their dashboard reports that they’re making a cumulative total of more than $1million a day:

This is absolute bananas if you consider that the entire Bitcoin network generates around that much as day as well too:

Conclusion

So will Rollbit rollover? As long as it has this much traction and is generating these high revenues, most likely not. Considering that I almost always see something about Rollbit in my twitter feed, there’s still a whole bunch of people still talking about Rollbit/$RLB and obviously a whole bunch of people still playing on it. I will say though that in my opinion the token itself is still at least slithgly overvalued and if you haven’t bought into pre-August 8th when $RLB’s tokenomic changes were made — my guess is that you may have already missed your chance to double your bags.

All that being said, I definitely don’t consider myself an expert trader and I’ve been wrong countless times before, so please remember that this is not financial advice and this is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Please as always, do your own research and find what investments are best for you.

And as always, thanks for taking the time to read this and be sure to follow me on twitter (https://twitter.com/CryptosWith) to get all my latest updates. Also, looking for a gift for your Crypto-loving/hating friend? Give them a REKT journal to cheer them up!