The Crypto Weather Forecast is my daily take on the crypto market, sometimes serious, sometimes sarcastic, often with a wink, and Always Honest.
Guess I was wrong, again. I really expected this week to end with a green candle, but being only one day away it does not really look like that´s gonna happen.
Now don´t get me wrong, I do not see any recovery coming soon.
Summer is a great time just not for crypto.
Why did I expect a bounce, because logic dictates that what goes down, must come up. And an 8-week downtrend is a very long time. That made me buy a bit, just to sell with a 10% profit. To allow me to buy a tad more when summer will further melt the price of bitcoin.
Okay for now that plan failed, I was wrong...Again. Unlike this guy: Jeremy Grantham
Jeremy is right or is going to be right one day. Jeremy Grantham (founder of GMO, with $20 billion in its equity portfolio), called prior stock market crashes from the dot-com bubble to the financial crisis.
That is amazing how does he do that?
Well, it´s simple. He´s been saying that the bubble will burst for years. And when the bubble finally bursts (it always does that is how markets work) he starts saying: "See I told you so, I am Jeremy and I am always right." Our pal Jeremy is a PermaBear.
Me, I am not a PermaBaby nor permanent bearish. I am a Tempbear, like for the next year or so.
Now our Jeremy is expecting the Nasdaq to drop another 40% (it did 20% so far). That 40% should be the end of the bubble and take us back to the March 2020 pandemic levels. Just his opinion, remember the guy is a mega bear.
Fortunately, Jeremy is not saying much about the crypto market, that leaves some room for me.
Yes, the crypto market is currently very much correlated with the stock market. But all financial markets have a strong correlation due to the financial situation we see today.
If the stock bubble bursts, I expect crypto already to have seen the worst.
The crypto market is often earlier than the traditional market. Earlier, and more used to volatility, so even if our Jeremy will be right after 2 our 3 years and the stock bubble finally burst, the crypto market will probably benefit from it.
Because it would have already bottomed out. Of course, it will fall due to the panic (opportunity), recover much sooner than the traditional markets, and possibly see a big inflow from traditional stock investors.
My only worry is this:
If the stock market bubble does not burst in 2022, the effect on crypto market will not drive the bitcoin price to this cycle´s bottom. Based on previous cycles Bitcoin will hit its cycle low in 2022. The bottom can be 21K or even go as low as 15K.
If that plays out it would mean that most of us were already able to scoop up Bitcoin for a price that was lower, than what we´ll see when the stock bubble bursts.
So that is why I truly don´t care about this perma-bear.