Wen Alt Season? Is it still Coming?

By Adamq | Market analysis and views | 9 Jun 2025


Disclaimer: The following reflects personal opinions and does not constitute financial advice.

For many of us, “Alt Season” brings nostalgic echoes of past cycles: explosive rallies, 10x gains on frogs and dogs, and a wall of green across CoinGecko. Historically, Alt Season has followed a strong Bitcoin run, with investors rotating profits from BTC into smaller-cap coins in search of higher returns. However, the structure of the market is changing—and Alt Season might be evolving with it.

A Shift in Market Structure

This cycle is already noticeably different. The broad-based exuberance that once lifted every token now seems more selective. Altcoins such as XRP, HBAR, and LTC have made headlines and seen surges, but often in response to specific catalysts—legal rulings, ETF filings, or corporate partnerships—rather than broad market momentum. Narrative-driven surges, particularly in themes like DePIN or AI, have replaced the indiscriminate rallies of prior cycles.

Part of this reflects a fundamental change in who holds the capital. Retail “crypto degens” once fuelled wild swings across every alt. Today, a significant portion of liquidity comes from institutions, channelling in via ETFs, asset managers, and corporate treasuries. This capital tends to be more conservative and has remained largely concentrated in BTC and, to a lesser extent, ETH.

This leads us to the obvious question: Will we see an Alt Season at all???

I believe we will—but it will come later…. soon…. and look different. Another leg up in BTC could trigger the euphoric sentiment required to lift alts, but this time, the winners will likely be fewer, the capital flows more disciplined, and the narratives more fundamental.

Here are three altcoins I believe are best positioned for that next phase—reflecting my preference for top-20 coins with traction, not hype.

Ethereum (ETH): The Blue-Chip Altcoin

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Ethereum remains the undisputed heavyweight among smart contract platforms. It has the largest developer base, the most mature DeFi ecosystem, and deep institutional integration. Despite underperforming BTC so far this cycle, ETH remains a core asset in my portfolio—and I believe the best risk-adjusted long-term bet outside Bitcoin.

So why has ETH lagged?

The shift to Layer 2 (L2) scaling solutions such as Optimism, Arbitrum, and Base has raised questions about fee capture and value accrual to ETH as a base-layer asset. Additionally, the roadmap—especially the roll-out of upgrades to improve throughput—has been slow and technically complex.

But signs of a turnaround are emerging. The prior “Dencun” upgrade (a major step in the broader roadmap including “The Surge” and “The Scourge”) introduced proto-danksharding to reduce L2 fees. The recent “Pectra” upgrade aims to simplify validator UX and improve scalability.

With the ETH ETF approved, the gap between BTC and ETH in TradFi accessibility is finally narrowing. I expect ETH to reach $4K–$5K later this year if the broader cycle continues—and wouldn’t rule out a push towards all-time highs.

Solana (SOL): The Chain of the People

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Solana has cemented itself as the platform of choice for retail users. Fast, cheap, and user-friendly, Solana has powered the recent wave of meme coins, NFT mints, and high-throughput DeFi apps. Its branding and UX appeal make it the most “mainstream-ready” Layer 1 in crypto today.

Solana’s willingness to sacrifice some decentralisation in favour of performance has been both a strength and a liability. The network has faced several high-profile outages in the past, but these haven’t meaningfully dampened enthusiasm.

One reason: it just works.

Solana’s push into consumer hardware with the Saga mobile phone has been a bold success, with the upcoming "Seeker" model expected to deepen integration between the chain and everyday users. Meanwhile, Firedancer, a second validator client developed by Jump Crypto, is expected to launch by the end of 2025 and could improve throughput by orders of magnitude—eliminating one of Solana’s biggest vulnerabilities.

If retail sentiment returns, Solana could fly again and break through all time highs to $400+.

Sui (SUI): High Risk, High Reward

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Sui sits further along the risk curve, but it’s one of the most innovative new entrants in the Layer 1 space. Developed by ex-Meta engineers behind the now-defunct Diem project, Sui is built using the Move programming language and focuses on parallel transaction execution—offering scalability without traditional bottlenecks.

The user experience has been a key priority. Transactions are near-instant, and the chain has carved out a niche in consumer-focused Web3 applications, particularly in gaming and creator economies. The team has already launched Mysten Console, a blockchain-integrated gaming device aimed at onboarding gamers into Web3 with minimal friction.

However, there have been growing pains. Earlier this year, a major app on Sui was hacked, causing a sharp decline in price—despite the exploit not being caused by the protocol itself. This underlines the risks involved in early-stage ecosystems.

Still, fundamentals are strong. The network has seen rapid TVL growth, and the development of zkLogin (a native feature allowing users to log in using Web2 identities) could help onboard a new class of mainstream users.

If Web3 gaming gains momentum, or Sui continues to differentiate itself through performance and onboarding, it could offer significant upside. Being riskier, my return bar is higher…this could easily go far beyond $10… with the right catalysts and hype-driven mania….who knows how far this puppy can run?

So… Is Alt Season Dead? Or Just Different?

Alt Season isn’t dead—it’s evolving. The scattergun rallies of old are giving way to a more mature, narrative-driven market. Projects now need more than a ticker and a community—they need traction, resilience, and a reason to exist.

We’re not quite there yet. Bitcoin likely needs to break higher to trigger the broad risk-on sentiment that lights a fire under altcoins. But when it does, the winners this cycle will be fewer—and their success more meritocratic.

For my part, I continue to DCA into BTC and ETH, which remain ~90% of my portfolio. SOL and SUI are my higher-beta satellite plays—but I size them accordingly.

Because in this market, it’s not just about catching the right wave—it’s about surviving long enough to ride it.

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Adamq
Adamq

Strategy consultant, cryptoenthusiast and amateur astrophysicist.


Market analysis and views
Market analysis and views

In this blog, I aim to share my musings on the crypto markets and financial markets in general.

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