2025 is just about over, and what a wild ride it’s been this year. The bulls rallied to all time highs but hangover is setting in.
Where We Are Now (The Vitals)
• The Price Check: Right now Bitcoin is ranging around $80,000–$90,000 USD.
• The Ouch Moment: Remember that awesome peak earlier this year? BTC hit roughly $126,000. So yeah, we’ve tumbled about 30% since then.
• The Bear Signal: A 30% drop from the high? That officially puts us in bear market territory (that's the 20%+ drop benchmark). All those sweet 2025 gains? Poof. Gone. It seems like the entire crypto world is taking a major risk-off break right now.
The Big Picture: Halving Cycle Check
We always talk about the 4-year halving cycle, right? Even with all the fancy new institutional money (ETFs, etc.) trying to change the rules, the old patterns still kinda stick around.
• The last halving was in April 2024.
• Historically, the major price peak usually hits about 17–18 months after the halving (e.g., peak Dec '17 after 2016 halving, peak Nov '21 after 2020 halving).
We're now about 20 months past the 2024 halving. This means the run to $126k fit perfectly into that bull phase, and now, being slightly past the typical peak window, this huge drop looks a lot like the start of past bear markets (hello, 2018 and 2022 vibes!).
Checking the Charts (AKA the Technical Deep Dive)
The charts are basically yelling at us right now.
• Monthly View: The $126,000 top looked like a classic cycle finish. We made a new high, and now we’ve had a string of nasty red candles pulling back. The long-term trendline from the 2022 bottom is on life support. Plus, the RSI (a momentum tool) gave us a bearish divergence—that's a fancy way of saying "the pump was running on fumes." This is a classic "we peaked" signal.
• Weekly View: This chart is just confirming the pain. We broke down from those crazy "parabolic" highs and are now clearly making lower highs and lower lows. We smashed through key support levels (like the $100k-$110k zone) and momentum indicators are showing we still have room to fall.
What Does the Smart Math Say? (Elliott Wave)
The analysts using Elliott Wave theory are mostly leaning bearish for now:
• The most convincing take is that the 2024–2025 rally was the final big push (a "Wave 5"), and we're now starting a multi-month/year correction phase. Basically, the party's over, and now we clean up.
• A few optimists think this is just a big "Wave 4" pause before another huge pump ("Wave 5"), but honestly, all the recent data is pointing hard to the downside.
My Two Cents: The Verdict
Yeah, friends, we're almost certainly at the start of a bear market.
The cycle peak looks to be behind us. The 30% crash combined with all the "topping" signals on the long-term charts is exactly what the transition into a post-bull bear phase looks like based on history. Historically, Bitcoin bear markets last 1–2 years and can see huge drops—like 70%–85% from the peak. So, buckle up and be careful out there.
Thanks for taking the time to read this! And I hope to see you in the next one!
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*Disclaimer- I am not a certified financial planner/advisor, certified financial analyst, economist, CPA, accountant, or lawyer, or anything important for that matter. The contents of this article are for informational, educational, and entertainment purposes only and do not constitute financial, accounting, or legal advice. Always do your own research.*
