Bitcoin is the only truly free market in the world. Users are always able to find the equilibrium price with Bitcoin. Trading never stops. Volatility is a feature of Bitcoin, not a bug. The short-term price of Bitcoin will be more sensitive to the emotions of investors or the attempts of the Whales to manipulate it.
Many people have a hard time dealing with their emotions when faced with the ups and downs of the Bitcoin price. The fact remains that they lose a lot of money and time. Money by often selling their BTC at a loss, and time by spending their day tracking the price of Bitcoin.
Yet you know that Bitcoin allows you to opt for low-time preference. So it's in your best interest to stay away from the Bitcoin price in the short term. However, I can understand why you might want to look at the Bitcoin price every day.
This is one of those bad habits that are hard to break. I say bad habit because for many people it is difficult to look at the price of Bitcoin and continue to focus on their long-term goals, without letting the uncertainty of the short-term take over.
In this case, I think you should focus instead on a much more relevant indicator when you want to go for low-time preference. This is the 200 Week Moving Average of the Bitcoin price. This indicator has never ended a month lower since Bitcoin's inception.
This is a good thing to better perceive the NgU side of Bitcoin technology, which is thus fully expressed in the long run. The reason I'm talking about this 200 WMA is that it has just exceeded $20K for the first time in Bitcoin history:
On this chart, you can see that in every Bitcoin market cycle, the bottom was reached right around the 200 WMA. On this chart, you can see different colors based on the percentage increase of the 200 WMA. Depending on the month-by-month % increase of the 200-week moving average, a color is assigned to the price chart.
Bitcoiners who take a long-term view and want to remain relaxed in all circumstances will be able to monitor the color changes monthly. For those wishing to trade while remaining detached from the daily price, it is worth noting that historically, when you see orange and red dots assigned to the price chart, this has been a good time to sell Bitcoin as the market overheats. Periods, where the price dots are purple and close to the 200 WMA, have historically been good times to buy.
By focusing solely on the 200 WMA of the Bitcoin price, you will get the last confirmation you may have missed about the best strategy to adopt with Bitcoin for 99% of people.
This strategy is simple: Buy Bitcoin, HODL Bitcoin no matter what, Repeat.
Three simple steps that will be linked to a constant deepening of your knowledge, so that you understand the why of Bitcoin, and never lose sight of it. This brings us back to the four Keep's of Bitcoin I talk about frequently: Keep Learning, Keep Buying, Keep Stacking, Keep HODLing.
To finish on the 200 WMA, you should know that we will probably never see it again under $20K considering what awaits Bitcoin in the years to come.
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