Nothing is easy in the Bitcoin world. That's what makes everything Bitcoin has already accomplished since its inception so special. Everything Bitcoin has achieved, it has had to earn through the willingness of its users to bring to life this incredible monetary revolution based on a major technological disruption invented by Satoshi Nakamoto.
I think it is important to remember this as the price of Bitcoin experienced a leverage shakeout on November 15, 2021, which brought its price below $60K for the first time since November 1, 2021.
Many are starting to panic that this Bull Market is already over. As I wrote recently, this Bull Market is far from over in my humble opinion. On the other hand, you should always be prepared for this type of movement to occur in the Bitcoin market. Bitcoin is a free market, the only truly free market in the world, and volatility is part of the game.
It is even more so with the long and short positions taken by some. This can cause sudden drops or rises in the price of Bitcoin when we see massive liquidations. This is exactly what happened on November 15, 2021, with over $250 million in long positions being liquidated in the Bitcoin market:
As you can see from this chart, this is happening from time to time. While this is a far cry from what happened in early September 2021 when over 1.2 billion long positions were liquidated, what happened on November 15, 2021, was significant enough to have finally caused the price of Bitcoin to fall below $60K.
Interestingly, we saw a bounce off the 50-day moving average on November 16, 2021, with the price of Bitcoin back above $60.5K. This was not enough to reassure the market, which went from extreme greed to neutral sentiment in a matter of hours:
If the $58.5K area did not hold, a retest of the $53.5K area would follow
This is how it is done in the Bitcoin world. It would not be surprising if the market fell into fear if the price of Bitcoin failed to hold support at the $58.5K area:
It is holding for the moment, and at the time of writing the price of Bitcoin has even risen above $60K to $60.5K. However, this does not mean that we are out of the woods in the short term. If the $58.5K area was not held, then the price of Bitcoin could have more on the $53.5K area support which corresponds to the local high hit in September 2021 before the massive liquidation of more than $1.2 billion which brought Bitcoin below $40K in a few days.
However, there are several indications that the bottom has been hit around $58.5K. The funding rate is now negative. The market will be able to go up again in the next few days in my opinion. Bitcoin's RSI has fallen sharply, which brings it closer to a new oversold.
To find out more about the RSI, I invite you to read this article I wrote on the subject: “Find Out What Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) Is and Why It Does Matter”.
The $75K-$80K area remains the target for the end of November 2021
Finally, for those who imagine that the $69K ATH recently reached could be the peak of this cycle, the fractal pattern highlighted by Allen Au on Twitter clearly shows that we are in wave 6 of what happened in 2013 and 2017:
As always, there's no telling if history will repeat itself, but going back to what Mark Twain said, history often rhymes. If we find ourselves in the same configuration in 2021, we will still have a wave 7 that will push the price of Bitcoin much higher afterward.
This is my preferred scenario as I have written to you before. As such, I still believe in Bitcoin reaching the $75K-$80K area by the end of November 2021.
We will see what happens in the coming days and weeks. In the meantime, always the same motto: stay strong, stay a Bitcoin HODLer.
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