According to "RadarHits" on Twitter, it seems that Bitcoin touched $45,000 on Coinbase last night. Coinbase is or will be the custodian for 10 out of the 13 Bitcoin Spot ETF firms awaiting approval from the SEC. When that approval shall come and whether the SEC will greenlight all of them at the same time remains to be seen.

What we know for sure, though, is the fact that Bitcoin has had quite a run-up in the past year or so. 2023 is about to go down, and we are getting closer and closer to the halving, which is supposed to take place sometime in April next year. The halving is usually the trigger for the parabolic run for the price of BTC.

This bull market, we are going to have two main catalysts driving the price up, one is the halving, and the second one is the long-awaited Bitcoin spot ETF approval. It will happen, and it will happen because BlackRock is in the game. I'm not a fan of BlackRock because I usually don't have any admiration for companies trying to put a monopoly "on everything," but the signs are there...

If the BTC spot ETFs will be approved in January next year, as some are hinting at, then we are going to have a hell of a ride before the halving. The halving will only "make things worse"...

Now, this is all supposition and my gut feeling thinking out loud, but something tells me that the crypto market will peak sooner this cycle than it usually does (1.5 years after the halving). My intuition tells me that we are going to witness the peak for BTC (probably around $150,000) before the end of 2024.

So, if you buy crypto now, or if you bought relatively recently, "technically you can't lose money," because everything is going through the roof in the next coming months. Unless... Well, unless you are lucky enough to buy something like LUNA (like I did in the summer of 2022) and end up losing everything you've invested in such garbage.

There's this famous chart called the Wall Street cheat sheet, and to me, this thing describes so accurately the psychology of the markets as they are moving from one cycle to another. To me, it is crystal clear by now (been saying it since January 2023) that we are in a bull market, but not all of us are in this position.

Big Twitter influencer names such as Capo and Gareth Soloway are saying that the current rally for BTC is nothing more than a bear market rally. I would highly disagree on this one. In my six+ years of crypto, I have never seen any bear market rally lasting for almost a year. The S&P500 and Bitcoin are confusing quite a few renowned analysts and investors at the moment.

You see, back in early 2023, bears were in disbelief when BTC rallied from $15,000 to about $24,000 because they missed the train. When BTC corrected to sub $20,000 after that move, "it was all over" again. Now the way I see it, both bulls and bears are in disbelief. Bears are enduring such pain because they're sidelined since $15K, and bulls are in disbelief because they can't believe BTC has recovered so much of the 2022 losses in such a short time.

I don't expect Bitcoin to go near $69k (2021 ATH) anytime soon, and if it corrects to something like $30,000, I see it as normal price behavior for a bull market (2016-2017 saw plenty of approx 40% corrections despite being a hell of a bull market). At some point, BTC will make some room for altcoins to grow because thus far for the cycle, it was bitcorn that saw major price appreciation.

DOGE is showing signs of strength; it is usually it or ETH that are the leading indicators for an altcoin season, and the way I see it, the worst is gone for alts too. But let's get back to the theme of the post (if it's got any), that being the idea of losing money in crypto.

Technically you can't lose money in crypto, unless you indulge in excessive leverage trading or you have tons of bad luck and buy shitcoins like LUNA because even if you end up holding a coin that has devaluated a lot during the bear market, usually the next bull cycle will eclipse the previous one. Most of the noobs are losing money because they buy too high or out of greed end up holding "till the peak and back" and end up selling out of desperation out of fear of not losing too much.

Personally, I believe that the ones buying atm are going to be clear winners in this bull market, especially if they have clear strategies for their investments. What do you think?

Thanks for your attention,
Adrian