It seems that Bitcoin is taking a well-deserved breather. If you've been following Crypto Twitter (CT) for the past few months since BTC lost the $30k+ level, you would have noticed that some of the most influential voices in the space have gradually adjusted their narratives to align with the price. Many who were bullish during the summer rally are now adopting more conservative or even bearish positions.
$27K, $28K, and even $26K were thought to be "unbreakable support levels," but none of them managed to stave off the bloodbath. If you examine BTC's all-time high (ATH) chart on the daily timeframe, you'll see that over the past week or so, whenever BTC neared $25,000, there was strong demand from the bulls that pushed the price back up.
We can't predict how long $25k will hold or whether this current grind will extend into Q4 of 2023. However, one thing is clear to me: the bull market is still here. It's just that we're currently far from the parabolic phases that most people associate with a bull market. The current cycle resembles more of the 2015-2017 one than the previous cycle.
One of the main reasons I missed out on the past two crypto bull markets was that I paid too much attention to social media influencers when deciding the fate of my portfolio. I'm not making that mistake anymore. After nearly six years in crypto, I believe I'm mature enough to draw my own conclusions and take the necessary steps to make my crypto bull market experience a fruitful one.
Despite the stress I'm currently going through, I remain confident and realistic. I believe we will witness another parabolic run sometime in 2025. Regardless of whether a recession hits or not, crypto cycles are far from fading. According to some analysts and a chart I stumbled upon a few months ago, dating back to the early '90s, the year 2026 is when we should start becoming bearish toward the markets, including crypto.
Following the 2026-2028 bear market, another cycle is expected, and around 2030, we might encounter something akin to a depression. While we can't predict the future, this chart suggests that 2030 could bring a significant downturn. It won't be the end of the world, but corrections might be slightly more severe than what we've experienced in the past decade.
I'm not trying to seem prescient by pointing out these timeframes and potential market scenarios; I'm merely seeking the best metrics to navigate the cycles ahead.
When the next parabolic phase in crypto eventually arrives, all the currently conservative analysts will likely turn extremely bullish once again. This could lead to a slaughter of many new investors enticed by these outrageous price predictions shared on social media.
As you may have noticed, every bull market comes with its absurdities. Worthless NFTs reach astronomical valuations, meme coins surge by 100x to 200x, and various celebrities endorse projects that might land them in legal trouble when the bear market strikes. The absence of these typical parabolic behaviors is due to the fact that we're not yet in that phase.
So, when will we exit the current correction? Most likely when $15K, $12K, and $10K BTC levels once again dominate the discussions in the crypto community. In the meantime, hold tight and resist the urge to sell your "bitcorn" to BlackRock.
This behemoth is already buying up numerous homes, driving up prices and making homeownership more challenging for individuals. Also, since BlackRock has filed its own Bitcoin spot ETF application, expect it to accumulate Bitcoin and potentially manipulate the market once the ETF is approved.
That's all from me for now. I wish you all a fantastic day, and see you next time.
Thanks for your attention,
Adrian
