We're gradually approaching one year of a bear market for Bitcoin and the rest of the altcoins after BTC peaked at $69,000 on Nov 10, 2021. That peak was not in the cards... for anyone, I guess. I personally have not foreseen BTC to peak "that low" at that time.
It happened, though, and since November 2021 we have been in an almost continual downtrend. $17,500 seems to have been the ultimate bottom if no black swan will "kill Bitcoin" :) and believe it or not, we're still 72% down from the ATH.
Experts were calling for an 80% fall, as it happened in previous cycles, but it didn't happen. Neither the previous bull cycle replicated the past one. I have no clue why the market behaved as such, but what we can see now is that for about a month or so BTC is starting to form higher highs and higher lows.
These are extremely shy imo, but such a change in trend, although quite insignificant, might be the end of the bear market. What does an end to the bear market actually mean? Well, to me(ignorant and lazy crypto investor), it's the time when the price refuses to create lower lows and lower highs and starts crumbling upwards.
It's futile to say that the bear market is definitely over because we don't have any clear signs of significant higher highs and higher lows, confirming an exit from the bear market and a clear trend reversal while everybody and their mother are waiting for the price of BTC to get the fuck out of the descending channel it has been in for close to a year.
The funny thing with charts is that you can pretty much draw the lines to fuel your basis, thus some analysts already point to a break out of the descending channel that I mentioned above, but there isn't a general consensus in that regard. I don't do TA, but my gut feeling tells me we will change trends a few months from now.
I believe that 2023 will find us "walking on different waters" with a recession already priced in, finally becoming palpable for any pleb out there, and having probably a deal between Ukraine(America) and Russia that will end the NATO(US) provoked conflict as well, which is also getting close to one year of existence.
Some would argue that BTC and the whole crypto market will do good, or at least decent in a recession, but my take is it will do the opposite. Bitcoin is a new asset class that can become a hedge against economically turmoiled times ahead, as of the incoming recession.
Bitcoin seems to be often pricing in crises and bad events before the traditional assets do and that also makes it reach the surface way ahead of those. Regrets in 2021? Yes, I do have a few...
LUNA, not selling when the portfolio was still making any sense, getting a bit early back in the market, and not buying the exact bottom(my personal extreme fear). Other than that I'm fine. It's the second bear market that I've gone through, I believe I handled it pretty decent, although I could have done better and as mentioned in the introduction, I think we're close to an end to it.
What do you think?
Thanks for your attention,
Adrian
