I keep on seeing folks comparing this rally with the late 2017 one and what a mistake are they making. What BTC does now can't and shouldn't be compared with what it's done in late 2017. That was the end of the bull cycle and now we're not even half way through it.
The way I see it, If we were to compare the current price action of BTC I would rather bring into discussion the month of December 2016 when BTC rallied from $750 to almost $1,200, blowing off in January, just to correct to about $900 and continue its uptrend.
Yes, BTC is not mooning yet, and probably not even getting short term close to the $100,000 predicted by the S2F model, or the even more enthusiastic target of $400,000 coming from investing fund managers lately. I guess nobody knows for sure where it will peak, but the history has shown us that it usually peaks at least one year after the halving.
It might get to a local peak this month or the next one of around $50,000, how @edicted is expecting and letting us know through a series of posts on leofinance, but that's a local top, and even if it falls to $20,000 after reaching $50,000 short term, we're still not living 2017-2018 drama.
Because from there on it has way more to go until entering extreme overbought territory and entering the bear market.
original photography by yours truly ;)
Having in mind such useless comparisons for the current rally in BTC with the late 2017 one, some are gonna sell crypto too soon, BTC and alts included. Getting fooled by the market, probably for the second time in the case of some folks, will result in missing the massive profits they've been waiting for years.
Yes, the current rally is strong, seems unstoppable like it did in 2017, past memories of seeing profits vanish might still haunt some, but I wouldn't sell yet. At least don't do that if you're not a good trader. If you are, do it, you'll probably catch some discounted BTC after the blow off, but... you might sell too soon.
It might be a good strategy to sell some if it reaches $50,000, or even $30,000 and buy back cheaper when it corrects, as it will for sure due that, but it's quite hard to nail a good trade and a bit risky imo. You might end up not being able to buy lower than you sold.
If someone for example would have sold BTC at $1,200 in late 2016 believing that it was the top, even a local one, that it would correct to about $700 from where the rally actually started after the halving, being able to buy back cheaper, would have made a trade.
It's heard to envision the magnitude of this bull market and having always in sight the previous ATH peak for BTC will probably determine some participants to the market to sell too soon. Same will happen with alts.
I've seen already quite a few saying that alts, even the OG ones, will probably never get to their previous ATHs and making new ones is almost impossible. To some cases that might be true, but don't underestimate the power of FOMO.
I know, 2017-2018 was when alts started soaring and many weren't around in the previous bull market, but you know what... neither financial institutions were around during the 2017-2018 bull market. Now we have large and retail investors, hence there's tons of powder to shoot at the moon.
You'll probably be amazed of how high some alts will jump once extreme fomo kicks in, some cutting through previous ATHs like a sharp razer blade through butter. Wait for ETH, LTC, XMR and some others to pass by their previous ATHs and then tell me alts are not gonna perform.
Some are gonna sell them too soon, for sure, and the continuous comparison of this current rally with the late 2017 one is gonna make them do that. It's useful to look in the rearview mirror, but if you drive continually doing that you're gonna end up hit a tree... or something.
Thanks for attention,
Adrian
Initially Posted Using LeoFinance Beta
