I know that whether we currently are or aren't in a bull market in crypto is quite arguable for some of us, but I am one of those who believe "the bull market is in" and I will only change my mind about that if and when BTC falls under $15k and spends some time there.
Meanwhile, I consider that we are currently in the early stages of the bull market, and sometime in Q2-Q4 of 2024, we will witness the start of the parabolic run that will take BTC and most of the crypto assets to new ATHs. It will happen again. Not to all cryptos, as some may never return to their 2017 or 2021 ATHs, but the most relevant ones.
I believe that coins such as BTC, ETH, MATIC, ADA, DOGE, SHIB, HIVE, and most AI coins will break past their previous ATHs and set new ones. The psychology of the market is pretty simple, and everything somehow revolves around psychology. It is fear and greed that drive the markets, not economic data or whatever.
In every cycle, there will be individuals saying that this time is different, and they will come with all sorts of data to support their narrative. Nope, it's not going to be different. I wouldn't try to predict the new ATHs of any coin based on past performance, but I do strongly believe we are going to have a proper bull run culminated by a parabolic run and a blow-off top sometime in late 2024 or 2025.
It doesn't matter that much when it will happen, although history has shown us that the four-year cycles we've seen so far keep the pattern alive. Anyway, if you pay attention to some of the stories circulating in the crypto world regarding the bull markets and the mistakes some have made in navigating such times, there are lessons to be learned so that one can beat emotions and maximize their investment.
Lesson no. 1 that I would emphasize is "premature selling." Premature selling, like premature ejaculation, is not fun. In the case of crypto investing, selling too soon, far below the past cycle top or right at the level of the previous cycle's top, and dumping everything in one shot is something many will regret as the market climbs higher.
As mentioned a few paragraphs earlier, quite a few coins will perform very well in the current bull market. Just look at the DOGE chart and imagine holding some DOGE back in 2020 and selling everything near the 2017 top. I guess seeing the dog coin skyrocket to $1 after dumping everything at $0.02 would have been very painful.
"Selling too late" is not advisable either, as you'll end up missing out on significant profits and may even have to settle for frustrating profits or, worse, dump at a loss. Doge comes to mind in this regard as well, as many DOGE and SHIB millionaires went from bull to broke by getting greedy and not cashing in the juicy profits they had during the parabolic run.
I've been one of these... "HODLing" is another mistake that many will make in this bull market. I am not against long-term holding, but if you're in this for the money, why would you buy a coin for $1 just to see it reach $30, then drop back to $1-$2, and not take any profits, especially when your personal financial situation is so precarious that working for McDonald's is a viable option.
If you want to live off crypto, forget about HODLing. HODLing is for Michael Saylor and whoever can afford to DCA and cold store BTC or whatever for many years while living a wealthy life and not depending on any crypto income.
Last but not least is another mistake I've made so many times in my six years of crypto experience, and that is "the monkey dance." You know what "the monkey dance" is in crypto? Well, it's jumping from one coin to another, based on shills and greed, and ending up missing out on the parabolic runs of most of the coins you once had but dumped for a more appealing and shiny one. Been there, done that...
Anyway, this post is getting way too long for a late Saturday one, so it's time to close it. I hope you have found some value in it, wish you all a great weekend, and see you next time.
Thanks for your attention,
Adrian
