"Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on scepticism, mature on optimism, and die of euphoria.”
John Templeton, legendary Wall Street fund manager

I saw a repost of @edicted on Twitter a few hours ago regarding starsarena.com, the newest crypto social media platform in town that promises a lot. However, at its core, it's nothing more than a cheap copy of Twitter, packed with AVAX rewards for users to earn and spread around. I was planning on drawing a parallel between this new platform and Hive...

But Edicted made it clear in his tweet that he's going to conduct an in-depth analysis of starsarena.com and compare it with Hive. Since he has taken the lead on this subject, I'll step aside. He'll undoubtedly craft a post on this topic better than I could. So, what do I have in store for today's post?

Well, let's delve into Bitcoin again... I know, I've been doing that a lot lately, and I'm not even a Bitcoin HODLer (I'm actually an altcoins fanatic). However, Bitcoin reigns supreme, and when trying to decipher what the market as a whole is up to, we should first look at Bitcoin.

Yesterday, @khaleelkazi made it clear in a tweet that he "knows for sure" we are still in a bear market. I highly disagree with that statement. Now, if we take into account his achievements in crypto and compare them with mine, you might wonder why you should pay attention to my take on the crypto market. I've been in this game for over six years and managed to miss quite a few excellent opportunities to make life-changing money from my crypto investments.

I don't want to argue here, and I'm not saying Khal is wrong with his statement. I might be wrong... What I want to highlight in this post is why I'm bullish on crypto at the moment instead of being bearish, and why you should be too.

First of all... What exactly is a bull market?

A bull market is a financial market condition characterized by a sustained upward trend in the prices of assets, such as stocks, bonds, commodities, or cryptocurrencies. During a bull market, investor confidence is high, and there is an overall optimistic outlook on the economy and the performance of financial assets. Key characteristics of a bull market include:

Rising Prices: Asset prices consistently rise over an extended period, often driven by strong demand and positive sentiment among investors.

Increased Trading Volume: Trading activity tends to be high as more investors buy into the market, contributing to the upward momentum.

Positive Economic Factors: Bull markets are often associated with favorable economic conditions, such as low unemployment, strong corporate earnings, and GDP growth.

Investor Optimism: Investors generally have confidence in the future prospects of the market, leading to increased risk-taking behavior.

New Highs: Bull markets frequently lead to assets reaching new all-time highs.

Bullish Sentiment: Media reports and investor sentiment surveys often reflect a positive outlook on the market.

source: chatGPT answer for the question "What is a bull market"

Now, in the above-mentioned exchange of comments between me and Khal, he mentioned the SMAs (the simple moving averages) in a reply to my comment where I pointed out that I believe that despite some of the altcoins (if not the majority) being technically in a bear market, Bitcoin is already in a bull market.

The primary reason that leads me to believe that Bitcoin is already in a bull market is part of ChatGPT's definition of a bull market, where it states that a bull market is characterized by a sustained upward trend in the prices of assets (in this case, crypto).

If you examine Bitcoin's all-time chart, you will notice that as of December 31st, 2022, Bitcoin has been in a continuous uptrend. The so-called digital gold is gradually ascending higher and higher, and with each upward wave, the subsequent price correction doesn't dip below the previous base it established before the rally. Essentially, it forms higher highs and higher lows.

And it has been doing this for nearly a year. However, if you scrutinize the same all-time chart for Bitcoin, you will observe that after Bitcoin reached its peak of $69,000 back in November 2021, it essentially formed lower lows and lower highs until it hit rock bottom at around $15,000. Personally, I never expected BTC to drop that low, but the market often does precisely the opposite of what we anticipate.

If BTC is now doing the exact opposite of what it did during the confirmed bear market we had from the peak of $69,000 (November 2022) to its lowest point at $15,500, then what season is Bitcoin in right now? I would argue that it is in a bull market, and it has been in this state for several months already.

Now, if we apply the definition given to us by ChatGPT regarding what constitutes a bull market, there should be other factors that Bitcoin would need to meet to confirm the bull market, such as "increased trading volume, positive economic factors, investor optimism, and bullish sentiment." The current market conditions do not align with all of these, so...

Is Bitcoin in a bull market or not? I would say it is, and I would also add that it is in the initial phases of the bull market, quite far from the parabolic run phase when all these "bull market conditions" are met. When all of these conditions are met, we're probably going to be near the peak, and I believe that's when you should become bearish, not vice versa.

The main problem that many crypto investors face is that they become bullish when everyone else does (when the market meets all of the above-mentioned conditions) and bearish when the best market opportunities are being offered. I strongly believe that there's a significant difference between a bull market and a bull run.

We could refer to the blow-off top of the market as the perfect bull run of the cycle, and that's when everyone should turn bearish and reduce their portfolios significantly. However, the majority does the exact opposite, becoming bullish on the market only when they see signs of a blow-off top formation. It's a somewhat unconscious behavior...

Another crucial aspect to consider when discussing "bull markets" in crypto is that altcoins do not behave the same way as Bitcoin during such phases. They typically undergo a more extended ranging period before entering a parabolic run, and they peak relatively close to the time Bitcoin does. Very few exhibit gradual growth in dollar valuations. You must be aware of this when staking your assets on altcoins.

Personally, I believe that Bitcoin is already in a bull market, for the reasons mentioned above. However, I don't think we are anywhere near the top. Quite a good percentage of all the altcoins are still in a ranging period. They might not drop below the lowest low they marked at the end of 2022, but they won't replicate Bitcoin's trajectory either.

Almost a year of continuous uptrend for Bitcoin screams "bull market" to me, and when it comes to altcoins, I believe that most of them still offer incredible financial opportunities, but not all will perform the same. Some will disappoint. There's been a lot of hype recently regarding social-fi driven by various factors, mainly due to the censoring nature of traditional social media, and Hive has a clear chance of getting the recognition it deserves. However, a bit of marketing wouldn't hurt...

What are your thoughts?

Thanks for your attention,
Adrian