Bitcoin has had a tremendous 2020, rebounding in quite a way after the March black swan event, and the beginning of 2021 brought its new ATH of aroind $58,000. That might be a local top, but definitely not the peak. $58,000 is not a round number and it doesn't peak at just 2x past bull cycle ATH, never did that. Now that we're probably more than halfway in this bull market, when will it peak?
I guess nobody knows that for sure, but we can at least make assumptions and try to estimate such events for better earnings for ourselves. I follow on twitter and youtube a great crypto analyst, namely @rektcapital whom I invited a couple of times on Hive hopefully at some point accepting the invitation, and over the years he has proved to be quite accurate in his analysis and predictions.
Now, if you don't want to read the whole thing then I'll spoil everything for you and disclose that according to past performance for Bitcoin it will peak on October 4th this year. There are some interesting similarities and time mirroring's that he's noticed and you might wanna stick till the end and see what I am writing about.
One key factor that influences the price of Bitcoin over its entire history is the halving that has always pushed the price up by creating scarcity for the most dominant cryptocurrency in the space. Hence looking at past halvings and how the price has behaved before and after we can see some similarities and time patterns that are indeed quite interesting.
Preceding the first halving for BTC, which occurred on 26 November 2012, its price has bottomed 378 days prior to that event, according to Rektcapital's analysis and it took it 364 days to peak after the halving. It seems though that BTC has experienced two smaller market cycles after the first halving with two different peaks, one of around $120 and an over 80% retrace and another one close to $1000 and experiencing another over 80% retrace followed by a bear market.
Bitcoin's halving no.2 which occurred in July 2016 sees a beautiful symmetry in price action with the halving occurring 518 days after BTC bottomed during the past bear market and it took it another 518 days to once again peak in December 2017. How mind blowing is that and what a nice mirroring in price actions before and after the halving. It's really unbelievable how all sort of cyclicities affect the world we live in.
Now looking at the analysis of Rektcapital, and I really encourage you to watch the full video I linked above about this topic, as he offers much more insights in his 10 minutes video than I am doing with this 5 minutes read post, we will see that after BTC bottomed at $3150 back in 2018 bear market, the halving event which is its latest one that imo was the number one catalyst for the current bull market, occurred 511 days after that bottom.
Considering that the 2020 halving has happened on May 11, and that the price performance will mirror past years, we should expect a cycle peak on October 4 this year. That only if BTC will rally for exact 511 days after the halving, replicating the mirroring of past cycle. Interesting math lies behind this technology and the market has created around it. To what heights will it reach until entering a bear market once again is hard to predict.
I assume it will be way over $100,000, maybe it will even get to that famous $388,000 that was promoted a lot on twitter. Reaching that, it will put BTC at 20x past bull cycle peak, and the past bull cycle peakd also at around 20x from its previous one, so we can see some really beautiful patterns and similarities, 20x after 20x for peaks, that have been created in Bitcoin's world.
I know, all of this might be just a play of words and numbers, but why not do that? It's Sunday, some weak hands are shaken out of the market as we speak before the crypto market resumes its uptrend and having a bit of perspective of where we at, what should we expect and looking a bit at the history of such boom and bust cycles won't hurt anyone. It's hard to sell the top, I bet that. It's even harder to buy the exact bottom, but studying these cycles could help one get the biggest in between meat chunk possible.
I don't do TA, as I mostly study the psychology of the market, but haven't permanently closed my eyes towards good TA. I follow quite a few like Rektcapital on twitter and we also have our own good ones on Leofinance, and making a soup once in a while with their shared analysis and perspectives could help one make the most out of his crypto investments. When true FOMO will kick in and euphoria will be everywhere will be hard to stay grounded and lucid.
Hence, I believe it's better to get mentally prepared before that happens and position yourself for massive profits. That comes from someone who during the past bull market cycle was totally uneducated about this ecosystem, that flew like a leaf lead by the wind between really bad trades, and got rekt out of the market at the beginning of 2018. Luckily I scored some good trades afterwards and managed to get here alive and well, already on nice profits and confident about exponential growth of these.
Take this post as you wish, feel free to flag it if you consider it's not original work, as the TA and numbers poured in the paragraphs above are not the result of my intelligence and trading skills, but definitely don't ignore it. It offers perspective and it might help some folks trading the market on a nice profit. Have a nice Sunday and see you to the next one.
Thanks for attention,