Bienvenidos mis ositos, tu siempre eres mis queridos!

(Welcome back little bears you are always my dears!)

It’s quite annoying managing your portfolio on a normal day. When international headlines get involved it’s downright aggravating.

Look I’m not a geopolitical analyst, I’m just a fat lazy panda trying to get my slice of the yummy DeFi.

I want to be as neutral on political matters as I can to avoid being put on some blacklist somewhere.

It doesn’t seem fair that you can be a target for expressing your opinion but that’s the unfortunate situation we live with now.

So every so often we see a rotation of international headlines involving Canadian truckers, Taiwan, and Ukraine.

Over in Ottawa, I can understand frustrations with compliance, mandates, and other red tape. But a potential trade or travel blockade doesn’t seem a like a good idea to me. It’s just a transfer of restrictions from one party to another.

There’s been enough supply chain disruptions as it is. To make matters worse the government response was to respond with an even more dramatic economic response: Potential FROZEN bank accounts.

If that’s not a good advertisement for DeFi I don’t know what is. I’ve written before about the prudence of shifting more of my assets out of TradFi and CeFi to DeFi.

Thank goodness there has not been an invasion or armed conflict (as of this writing) in Ukraine. Different markets feel like rollercoasters depending on the headlines from stocks to gold, and oil. If you live in parts of Europe where you need natural gas for heating you have my sympathies.

However this could be the least of our concerns if the situation escalates into armed conflict. It seems like a horrible potential loss of life for territorial grab.

Looking at past government actions during wars can provide clues as to what kind of problems we can expect to face. Namely hyperinflation, rationing, and diversion of precious resources.

During wartime governments will look to redirect people and resources towards dubious objectives. For example drafts, propaganda to sell war bonds to raise money, mandating companies to manufacture certain supplies, etc.

This potential misallocation of resources could lead to lower wages, higher costs and an overall lower quality of life.

A successful invasion by Russia could embolden China to invade Taiwan as well. Keep in mind, Taiwan manufactures almost HALF of the global silicon chip supply and a big chunk of key electronics.

This nightmare scenario would exacerbate an already hobbled chip and semiconductor industry. The good news are that international companies have started plans to move manufacturing domestically. Ideally they will be able to ramp up chip production before bombs start dropping.

Of course this could just be conjecture on a World War 3 worst case scenario. No country would really “win”. The only industry that would “win” would be arms manufacturers and maybe industrial manufacturers involved in rebuilding efforts.

Depending on who you believe this could be saber rattling by the US government to justify a war and distract from domestic problems.

OR

It could be saber rattling by the Russian and Chinese governments to gain global attention and extort indirect economic “protection money”. They could be goading the international community by teasing invasions. Nations like the US, Canada, Australia, and maybe EU countries would send troops and resources to hotspots. But this costs money.

Sometimes I wonder if the real goal of Russia and/or China is to frustrate, stall and cause other economies to get rekt without actually firing a bullet.

Another curious development was for Russia to float the idea of legitimizing Bitcoin.

Is this geopolitical 4-D chess or game theory trolling?

If Russia were to use Bitcoin, it would help them get away from a US dollar based system. The issue would be which of their trading partners would also use Bitcoin (and maybe other digital assets).

The response from the US and their allies could be scary for digital asset investors. They might use this as an excuse to ban/confiscate/restrict digital asset use.

I could see some politician saying “if our enemies are using digital assets they must be bad”. It’s our patriotic duty, shared sacrifice, or some other excuse like it’s for our own good to use the US dollar (or the CBDC equivalent).

Never underestimate how easy it is for some international bureaucrat to make your life hell.

Another potential worry could be PHYSICAL travel restrictions or worse travel DENIALS maybe even passport confiscation. I can just imagine in the future some nosy travel security guard giving someone a hard time just for having a hardware wallet.

After all we all know politicians, bureaucrats, and other nosy busybodies have our best interests at heart right? <Insert sarcasm>

Whoever wins we lose.

Now some of these scenarios seem outlandish but it never hurts to have backup plans.

Consider having a mix of hardware and online wallets. Maybe even a few precious metal coins.

Print and laminate seed phrases. Maybe even spread them across several sheets of paper. If you are fortunate to be a whale maybe spread out over several private international properties.

It’s a hassle and a pain to have multiple redundancies BUT you will be prepared and relieved if something bad ever happens.

Stay liquid and mobile frens.

Obviously none of this is formal financial or tax advice. You need to find qualified professionals in your jurisdiction.

Be sharp, stay hungry let’s get that money!