If you are someone who has been sitting on the sidelines for the last few years observing, you may be thinking this is now the best time to invest. In fact, you probably have a smile on your face after spending the last few years kicking yourself for missing the boat, again.

Alternatively, you may hold a crypto portfolio including crypto locked in staking platforms. Hopefully not Celsius Network, BlockFi or FTX.

Further, you could be on the fence. In this case that means you have been hedging your bets by holding stablecoins until prices recover. I’ll say at the outset, there is no such thing as a f*****g stablecoin! I curse for a reason, to get your attention. People have lost billions trusting in Terra’s UST. They are doing the same with Tron’s USDD, another crock of s**t waiting for the inevitable crash. Nexo and Hex are other questionable projects, in our opinion, which investors should exit if they are using these as savings plans.

The key question is, should we or should we not be holding, buying or selling crypto now and for the foreseeable future?

So, let’s get stuck in, as the nerd holding a hammer said to the bully…

Let’s start by talking about price predictions.

Nothing infuriates me more than the crypto media channels providing regular, even daily price predictions for popular coins. ‘Leading economists predict that Bitcoin will end the year flat’. ‘Bitcoin could still reach $100,000 by the end of the year.’

What the f**k do they know!

That irritation also extends to the technical analysts who try to base market, Bitcoin and Ethereum price predictions on past performance. These people are in the main just morons with a lack of valuable content to fill their podcasts or newsletters. In reality, the crypto market hasn’t been around long enough for technical analysis to be a useful tool especially in current circumstances. It’s just hot air.

My first bit of advice, *although this article does not represent financial advice as you well know*, is, listen to price predictions, in fact keep your ear to the ground for all indicators of market sentiment, but take them all with a pinch of salt. They should be treated as only one factor among many in guiding you when making your investment decisions. Remember, the ones making these predictions are biased. It is like a promoter standing outside his bar and asking you to come in, ‘it’s the best bar in town,’ the promoter exclaims. Sometimes it may end up being the best bar in town, more often than not it turns out to be a shit hole.

Saying all that, let's perform our own price prediction. Focusing only on Bitcoin.

Our predictions must start with a timescale.

Let’s say the next 3 months.

Your own time scale depends on whether you are a trader/speculator or are looking to get in at a bargain price in order to hold for the long term. Saying that, you will never find the bottom. If you do it will be total fluke. That is why we also advise to buy in increments.

Say you believe that anything below $20k is good value then you should buy whenever there is a material fall in the price. Say 1% or more depending on your circumstances. This is called averaging down and sets you up to benefit if the price rebounds. Which most people expect it to do at some point. That has to be a more powerful strategy than simply spending all your spare cash at any given point in time especially when the market is so weak and could fall much further.

It is all about timing, luck and resources. If the bear market persists for instance for another two years you will need to plan for this eventually by working out how much you can afford to invest in each tranche. For example by setting a limit of say $100 per month i.e. $2,400 over 2 years. If the price rises the limit rolls over to the next month giving you $200 to spend that month. At the end of the day, you must do what you feel comfortable with.

Let’s look at a few price scenarios for your consideration and entertainment.

**What are the chances of Bitcoin falling below $5,000 within 6 months?**

Let’s assign a probability of 30% to that event. You can obviously assign your own probabilities based on your own information.

**Next, what do you think the chances of Bitcoin falling below $10,000 within 6 months?**

Let’s also give that a probability of 30%.

**What are the chances of the price of Bitcoin falling to below $15,000 within 6 months?**

I think that possibility is higher, so let’s give that a probability of 60%

Now, let’s consider the positive side of the equation. However, we are going to take a slightly different approach here. Let’s base this prediction on the next 6 to 12 months as the chances of these events occurring before that are probably less than 10% - but stranger things have happened.

**What is the probability of the price of bitcoin exceeding $30,000 over the next 6 to 12 months?**

Let’s also give that a probability of 15%.

**What is the probability of the price exceeding $100,000 over the next 6 to 12 months?**

A probability of 5% is more likely here.

**How about if we change our time horizons to 2 years?**

A 20% probability of Bitcoin hitting $100,000 could be reasonable.

**What about within 5 years?**

That probability could be closer to 30%

**Now for the big one. What is the probability of Bitcoin reaching the magic $1m within 5 years?**

It’s anybody’s guess but a probability of 10% wouldn’t be unreasonable.

**The caveat to the above is that these probabilities are not scientific. They are based on our gut. You can assign your own probabilities. The key takeaway is to get you thinking rationally and in terms of probabilities rather than operating purely on fear and panic which is where most of us are when the red ink starts appearing day in day out on the ticker tapes.**

There is a maxim that Jeff Bezos bases many of his investment decisions on.

If an opportunity has a 10% chance of making 10 times + his original investment (he actually uses 1000 x in his reasoning), then it is worth the bet. He works on the theory that your downside is just 1 x your money.

We obviously don’t have the resources of Jeff Bezos, but we can use a similar strategy as long as we only invest money that we can afford to lose without forfeiting any (much) sleep.

What actions should we take?

**I alluded to a few strategies earlier, however summarizing these... Try to act rationally based on probabilities not on fear or panic. Exit your crypto staked on yield farming and staking platforms. Liquidate any crypto holding you have apart from a few of the quality projects, Bitcoin and Ethereum would be my choice. Buy on weakness from a position of strength. **

The question we all want to know is, when will this nightmare, sorry, bear market end?

Who knows...?

Kevin O’Leary aka Mr. Wonderful said that the bottom would be reached only when a ‘panic event’ occurs. ‘...we need something to go to zero.’ The failure of Tether, the so-called stablecoin, would be such an event, although FTX is a close second.

Making an intelligent guess I would say at least 12 months. More likely 18 months and possibly up to 2 years.

This whole article is predicated on the fact that we are assuming crypto is not going anywhere. Of course, when the market is in free fall the naysayers receive more headlines. Anyone saying that Bitcoin is looking cheap right now is wasting his time. Negativity is the only thing that people want to hear right now. For example Bill Gates said crypto is an asset class that is 100% based on the Greater Fool Theory. He is not wrong.

For the foreseeable future it is all about, I told you so.

So, is crypto dead?

It will come back stronger, more regulated and fit for the next phase of its existence. And we will all be a lot wiser until the next time!