You know that old saying about that broken clock and being right? That's how I feel about most people making these type of predictions and every now and then and up being right. Close to 10.000 or 100.000 Dollars per Bitcoin are the predicted price ranges I see the most scrolling by on blogs/social media or watching Crypto videos.
I have absolutely no idea if Bitcoin is going to drop all the way down to 20.000 or recover and rise way past the previous ATH of 60.000 this year, and there are undoubtedly countless people better in predicting the price movement than I am. All I can do is look at the current developments and adaptions being made regarding Bitcoin and the Crypto market and make my decisions based on that. For example, the El Salvador development was great but unfortunately for the moment pales into comparison regarding the anti-Bitcoin steps China has been taking the past months, thus I find it wise to take small amounts of my investment out in such times and closely watch further developments. I never take the majority of my investment out as I've often enough seen the price swings and possibility to be left with even less Bitcoin afterwards instead of accumulating more. Which brings me to a suspicion I've had for quite some time now, I often have the feeling these large holders who short almost all of their holdings just a day or so prior to a major announcement from a major company/bank or even a country, somehow were in a certain position that they got wind of the developments and quietly did so. As you can guess, these are not the type of people who make Youtube videos about it and need "the views" in exchange for their privileged info. I may be paranoid, but you know how sometimes the market suddenly crashes and then within day or so quickly recovers to the same point without any real reason or explanation? I sometimes get the feeling that's because of those type of people who hear about a certain upcoming government or CEO announcement or development, but the actual announcement was postponed or the plans cancelled entirely and they immediately jumped back in, causing Bitcoin to recover almost to the penny. And remember, such a recovery is quite remarkable since a drop from e.g. 50.000 to 25.000 is a 50% drop, but a recovery from 25.000 to 50.000 requires a 100% increase.
China is rather important because there is a lot of money from China in the Crypto market along with the mining power, so these anti-Bitcoin steps Beijing has taken lately are quite disappointing and worrisome to say the least. Especially if you realize Bitcoin doesn't have that many friends in North American of European governments either:
https://www.rt.com/business/526919-uk-digital-currency-trumps-bitcoin/
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/elizabeth-warren-environmental-impact-bitcoin-161724029.html
But does Bitcoin really need governments? The whole point of Bitcoin as I always understood was to fight financial oppression and gain free access to money no "authority" could confiscate from you, or could prohibit you from sending to anyone around the world. Isn't it then actually quite logical these type of governments would then be non-friendly to Bitcoin? And as concluded in a previous post, they can't "ban" Bitcoin itself, even if they disconnect the entire country from the internet, if I were to fly over there with 1 BTC on my Trezor, who would know? :)
But in all seriousness these indirect steps they are taking is hurting the Bitcoin adaption, transactions and of course current price and that's very unfortunate, especially since 100.000 Dollars per Bitcoin seemed a very realistic possibility just a few weeks ago. But as things are going, I guess it's safe to say we also won't see a 1.000.000 Dollar Bitcoin in 2021 either.
RIP John McAfee
