Bull run continuation or dead cat bounce ? Well this is the question that divides the bitcoin community. I haven’t got the answer but I have had an interesting discussion looking at the PlanB chart comparing 2012, 2016 and 2021 cycles. This, of course, is based on the assumption that we can compare the cycles and that we are not in a « this cycle is different » situation.
Just have a look on the chart : red curve is this cycle when the sky blue curve is the 2012 cycle (dark blue being the 2016 cycle). If we look at where we are now on the red curve, we can compare to the green area or the yellow area on the 2012 cycle. If we are in the same situation as the « green situation » then we will see the continuation of the bull run ; if we are in the same situation as the « yellow situation » then it’s the dead cat bounce and we are in the bear market.
If we look at the time frame, then we probably already are in the bear market : 18 months after halving was the bear market for the 2012 cycle but also for the 2016 cycle.
If we look at the values : we see that 2016 cycle top was lower than 2012 cycle top. We can imagine then 2020 cycle top being lower than 2016 cycle top. So we can think we have already seen the top.
So, I would say, that, if cycles are comparable, then the bear market is on.
Hopefully this cycle is different and all the above is wrong.