BTC: A GREAT Month. Expect A Retrace. But Full Steam Ahead!
BTC saw a healthy climb in the month of July. Beginning July with a price of $9000, we are now sitting at $11,686 at the time of this writing. With a jump of nearly 30%, we should all be expecting a retrace. But this doesn’t change the fact that BTC remains a monumental grab. Don’t let the small movements of the market change your long-term picture. I personally will continue DCAing into BTC.
In a new video put out by our trusted friend and analyst, Benjamin Cowen, who totally called the latest moon by ETH from ~$200 to ~$375 today, he goes into the current state of BTC. I’ll summarize his points below, but you can watch it yourself with that link above.
Using a regression curve to map the max highs and lows, he compiles a fair market value for BTC. The current price of BTC sits well inside that regression curve, and is above the FMV of $8900. That FMV corresponds to the 20 week moving average
Note that the red line is the 20 week moving average. The green band is the regression curve, and its central line is that FMV. Both correspond. BTC has been in a re-accumulation phase and has since broken out. Re-accumulation phases are a bullish sign as they indicate the beginnings of a new market cycle, shifting out of the re-distribution end of a bear market into a potential bull market.
In the short term, we are continuing to push higher local highs. Note that in 2019 there was a fluke moment of approaching $14000, but this was due largely to a USDT temporary collapse in price, sending the markets soaring and crashing within a day.
What happens next? Ask tea leaves, but in the longterm we should be expecting a continuation of the momentum we see. It will retract, but don’t be surprised if the prices continuing pushing higher. As COVID-19 continues to lay waste to the USA, that stockmarket could be in for another horrific dip. It’s my belief that BTC will be seen as a safe bet more than the inflated dollar circus as the federal government bails out mega corporations while doing fuck all for the people. I expect that economy to be in rough shape to the end of the year. In that context, BTC will continue to be an attractive asset. Hell, there is a popular twitter handle called BitcoinStimulus that shows how much the one-time stimulus check of $1200 would be worth had it all been spent on BTC. It currently sits at an impressive gain of +75%.
Ultimately, the story remains the same. Don’t expect a bullrun and peak ATH of that cycle for another few years, but be ready for the wild ride ahead!