Like most of you, I received YouTube messages announcing a massive Bitcoin dump. A correction is indeed likely to happen after last week's surge. However, can it really crash? In such a case, it is useful to look at the whales' BTC holdings. But first of all, we need to come back to the basics.
Let's define a whale:
The definition of a BTC whale would be a person or organization (a single address) with around 1,000 BTC or more.
It does not include the exchanges. As per a recent article in Business Insider, there would be around 1000 whales owning 40% of the market. One company is often mentioned: Grayscale Investments.
Who is Grayscale?
Grayscale Investments is a company that manages cryptocurrency investment funds. It is a subsidiary of the Digital Currency Group, which also owns the cryptocurrency news and digital media company Coindesk.
First remark: they belong to a group owning some news sites and Coindesk in particular. It shows we all have to be cautious with the news we receive. Secondly, they are specialized in cryptocurrency investment funds. So Bitcoin is not a hobby for them. That's their core business.
How much BTC does Grayscale own?
According to Glassnode graph below: on Feb.12, Grayscale owned 653,825.421777 BTC. As BTC price was US$47,482.86, it represented a total amount of more than $31 billion... which is the GDP of Cyprus.
What will Grayscale do with all their Bitcoins?
1) They can sell them for USD: why not, but so far they have only accumulated as shown below. If they start to sell them, they will dump the price, which will not be profitable to them. And once they have sold them, they will have to find new investments with a higher Return On Investment...
2) They can use them as the basis for their invesment products: that's basically what they do, with a nice return for them. And that's the interesting part of it: as these investment products are mostly mid & long-term, they contribute to the stabilization and the future growth of BTC.
In summary, it is quite unlikely that Bitcoin will crash, although a correction can be expected in the next few days. It is not a financial advice, as usual...