In this article I want to talk a little in a not very deep way because in reality this would need a great analysis but if laying down the ideas to reflect on these 3 issues that are actually very related. Lets start by the beginning. After the 2008 crisis we have witnessed the greatest financial laxity in history carried out by central banks in developed countries. Among them the Bank of England, the Bank of the European Union (ECB), the Federal Reserve (FED), the Bank of Switzerland, etc. What do I mean by the greatest monetary laxity in history? Obviously I'm talking about negative interest rates. That is to say, banks do not pay interest for borrowing money but they receive it. Can you imagine getting paid to borrow money? Among other new things such as quantitative easing, for the first time central banks have bought stocks, public debt and even mortgage debt. In the case of the United States, we are facing one of the largest real estate bubbles in history. Not happy with it, after the Covid pandemic, central banks, especially the ECB and the FED began massive purchases of these financial products, we are talking about hundreds of billions of dollars of purchases every month. At the same time, they kept interest at negative rates. We are talking about the biggest injection of liquidity in history, something like this has never happened before, not even in the Second World War.
The result? The highest inflation in a few decades. Plus it's probably still going on.
The FED and the ECB throughout this year have had ridiculous inflation forecasts, month by month. Do you know how many times they have hit the inflation of the following month? None, zero. Do you know how many times inflation has exceeded the estimates of these two institutions? ALL.
Chance? I do not think so. Central banks know that their forecasts influence inflation expectations, so they always keep their expectations down. Either that or they are the most incompetent organisms we have ever seen.
In the United States, with the extreme left and socialist populism, it is blaming the businessmen for inflation, something that is totally dismantled from an empirical and theoretical point of view since inflation cannot be managed by millions of isolated people. While the ECB continues to say that inflation is transitory, the same speech that the Fed had until a month ago. Obviously all economists with a minimum of talent already warned a year ago of the inflation that would cause the ultra-massive injection of liquidity in the economy.
Citizens do not stop losing purchasing power, in the United States there are massive vacancies, as in Canada, the economy has recovered thanks to one of the most competitive and deregulated labor markets in the world. On the other hand, in the European Union and especially in the southern countries, the economy has barely rebounded, unemployment is very high, more than 14% in the case of Spain, to cite a good example.
Why aren't interest rates going up now? The FED is already going to do it but the ECB says it will not raise them until 2023 or 2024. How is the highest inflation in decades possible and that no action has yet been taken?
The United States continues with its debt populism as a way of doing politics, and the same happens in Spain. But that populism has a price, we already saw it in Japan: the price is an economy that cannot grow and that has more recessions than any other country. That is the price of public debt overhang. The other price to pay is the state's default.
The United States continues with its debt populism as a form To cite Spain again, in 2008 the country had 80% public debt. Debt created from the largest waste seen in the country's democracy. But after the crisis, Spain had to be rescued by the ECB, in exchange for, of course, balancing public accounts. In other words, stop having a deficit. Do not spend more than what you enter to be sustainable. Simple.
A decade later, Spain was at 100% public debt over GDP, in Spain there is a populism of "it cannot be cut", and almost the entire population makes protests of millions of people every time spending is cut a little public. This problem has worsened after the Covid crisis. The result: more than 124% of public debt, a deficit of 5% of the annual Gross Domestic Product, and a massive waste in client networks of all kinds.
Everyone understands that money is better to have and spend now than to lend it to someone and have it returned to us in the future. That is why there are interests because I prefer $ 100 now than to leave it to you so that you can return it to me in the future. And the more risk there is of you returning it to me, the more interest I will ask for my money.
In Spain in 2008, with 80% of public debt, investors understood that the risk of default was beginning to be high, so public debt needed to be issued with high interest: more than 7%.
What is the interest on the public debt of Spain in 2020-2021? Almost 0%. Actually that would be the nominal interest, given inflation the real interest is minus 5.6%.
How is this possible? Because the European Central Bank has mutualised the debt of the euro zone countries. Now Germany loads with Spain and other countries like France, Italy, Greece, etc.
Doesn't anyone else see it? Populist policies are financed by the states themselves, they spread like a virus, a cartel of states.
This is the real reason why Christine Lagarde, the president of the ECB, continues to lie that inflation is temporary. What really happens is that if interest rates are raised, the euro goes bankrupt. It is not just Spain, there are many large countries with unpayable debt created over the years by a politics and by populist citizens.
At some point, Germany, Holland, Denmark, and in general the countries responsible with their public accounts, will protest what this is, which is a massive robbery. The Germans have no need to suffer this high and undesirable inflation, if it were for them the interest rates, which are so damaging to the economy, would rise. Since the 2008 crisis, these countries have kept their public debt in line.
Something similar happens in the United States, the populism of the right and the left of pulling public debt has been repeated over and over again in recent governments.
Now with the birth of Bitcoin, citizens have a better monetary alternative than even gold. Whether or not Bitoin will be a store of value, or whether or not it will be a commercial currency remains to be seen. It is something complex and not easy to foresee. But that it is here and is a threat to the sovereignty of the countries, it is quite clear.
That is why it is so maligned by the presidents of central banks, just to cite a few examples, the governor of the Bank of England has said that Bitcoin "is worth nothing, and one day it will be worth zero again." Or the president of the European Central Bank said that "Bitcoin was only used by tax evaders, criminals and money laundering." This is said by Christine Lagarde, a person involved in corruption cases of the ECB with the French upper echelons. The ECB itself is also involved in corruption cases with Deutsche Bank to name a few.
There are papers that show that the money that is most used for money laundering, drug trafficking, etc. It is, unsurprisingly: the euro and the dollar.
In fact, you would have to be stupid to use Bitcoin, being able to use Monero or any other cryptocurrency that is opaque.
In these we are. The greatest monetary experiment in history. When we read history we realize that what we know as "fiat money" has never lasted long in history and that in fact it is often the prelude to the fall of empires. In my opinion, money is too important to be left in the hands of a few corrupt politicians. Money during 4000 years of history has evolved through trial and error in the free market, some materials such as gold have proven to be good money, paper money however has proven otherwise.
It is fatal arrogance to think yourself smarter than the evolution of thousands of years of history and to play central planners with money. In addition to the implications that an agency has to say what the interest rate of money is, when it should be governed by supply and demand like the rest of goods.
And we better not talk about the fact that central banks should be independent institutions that protect their currency, as they did in the past and not that they are dedicated to running the economy, which is only what they are doing now.
In any case, FIAT money as we know it today is not even 70 years old, and in my opinion, sooner rather than later, it will cease to exist.
Finally add that the FIAT money is so good that it was imposed by the states through the most brutal violence. In the case of the United States, to move from the Gold Standard to the FIAT, the government decreed that no citizen could own gold and should sell it to the FED. Under pain of death.
The state gave citizens a few dollars for each gram of gold, then put a value higher than their dollars than what citizens paid. The robbery was instantaneous.
..... too much to say, but for a first article it's fine.