Every since the May 2021 sell-off, Bitcoin has been trading inside a Channel Up. On the larger scale, this is roughly within the 0.5 - 1.5 Fibonacci levels of a Fibonacci Channel Up that started after the March 2020 COVID led melt-down.
The time-frame is on the 1D and the key MA periods are the MA50 (blue trend-line) and the MA100 (green trend-line). It appears as if the Channel Up of 2021 is repeating that of 2020. If indeed that's the case, then as long as the 1D MA100 supports, it is very likely to see a break-out well above the Channel's top of the 1.5 Fib followed by a parabolic rally towards the 2.5 - 3.0 Fib extension zone. Even if that seems unlikely to you, consider that this may even be a moderate target as on the Fibonacci Retracement Scale (blue Fibs), the 2020 rally extended as high as Fib 4.0 (in early 2021). If it reaches the 3.0 Fib, that's $185000, even the 2.0 Fib is at the $100k benchmark.
How realistic a repeat of the 2020 parabolic rally do you think is within this Fibonacci Channel? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section
One of my fan's comment:
"There are many similarities in each of these 'macro' price movements. The next target I have is 76-78k mid November. I think the only near-term 'limiting' factor is that many people who were 'rattled' by the May sell-off have been taking profit at the current levels. I'm also seeing larger volumes moving in and out of assets as if Bitcoin is a 'home base'. There are much higher (and riskier) yields elsewhere, and so retail money will come and go as people are chasing those plays. If we do push very high at the end of the year, with more institutional holdings we may see a 'redistribution' event that would trigger a pullback."