Well today the market was up. I don't entirely know why because I was at work all day, but even during post-trading hours, the market was up. For some odd reason, even after projected lower earnings per share and a semi-annual dividend suspension, Disney stock was up for the day and had a gap up like other big companies such as Bank of America and ETF funds like $VYM. That made my bells ring and I figured it was time to sell while I was up a little bit. Mind you, my portfolio in M1Finance is mainly for buy and hold stocks whether it be bull or bear markets, but $DIS was too good of an opportunity to sell and too much of a risk to weather. Let me elaborate on that and also explain to you why I also wanted to sell Sprouts Farmers Market.
In my opinion, I feel like Disney is getting pump and dumped because it sometimes happens like that. For instance when there is a negative earnings report, or earnings falls short of expected earnings, stocks can sometimes jump up irrationally. Either due to gamblers making huge buy orders pre-market, or any other variable like that. Then after a few days of an up-trend, it crashed hard. I feel like this is no exception. There might be a chance that Disney breaks through support and reaches $130, but I'm not willing to take that chance. I'm going to just take profits and sell it off to rebalance my portfolio and buy into other dividend earning stocks.
In my opinion, Sprouts is a sell because based on the weekly chart and how the moving average looks, it looks as if it will teeter any minute now. I decided to just take my profits and run. $SFM is a great stock with much upside in the next 10 years. Grocery stores are killing it in this market with a lot of demand and lots of churn rate of inventory. But in my opinion, this chart is just not worth dollar cost averaging into something that will dump in the short term. And it doesn't pay a dividend. In my opinion, if I could, I would dollar cost average it regardless. But as of right now, my portfolio is too small to even give that a thought. Maybe I will go back to it some other day, but I already have $TGT and $VGLEA in my other slice so I am already exposed to grocery stocks. It seems like this back and forth rally and dump is a common trend. A lot of analysts have mixed emotions, where some hedge funds are buying up all of the stocks they feel are in value, while Warren Buffet is the seeming outlier in that he's selling his positions in some industries and holding in cash for a later date. He feels like the market is too risky at the moment.
Welp, in my opinion, it seems like there is a wedge forming to the downside for $BTC right now. I think the other charts will show why I feel it will fall to the downside in the near to mid term. And I will dollar cost average it when I can, but mainly focus on buying the dip if it ever reaches my price target.
This is the weekly chart for Bitcoin. It shows that support is at $10,000 and is near the top of the bollinger band indicator. Volume is also trending lower, so I'm hoping to buy up some Bitcorns when it reaches resistance or even breaks it at around $5,000.
The monthly chart shows a pattern. It seems as if Paul Tudor Jones is correct about his assessment for Bitcoin. That the volatility is seemingly predictable and that it's a similar hedge to inflation like Gold is. It's all speculative, but I think this monthly chart shows that it will reach a trough of $4,000 max and it seems like it will channel for a while until there is more adoption over the long term as Paul Tudor Jones mentions in this article.
Check out my Discord channel if you want to be a part of the dividend investing community either in Crypto or Stocks. We're all about seeking alpha, and we also have other sub-channels to have fun with. Definitely check out my M1Finance portfolio and see if you want to start dollar cost averaging and building your wealth over the long term. Money is an opportunity cost. The more you hoard, the more it depreciates. Remember that. Also next article, I will be writing about how I'm waiting for crypto trading to become available in Webull. In my opinion, it is only a matter of time till they do allow it. Till then, I will be dollar cost averaging bitcoin on the dips and being very cautious as an investor. I'm also looking into $TEZOS at the moment as well. Thanks for reading, and comment below if you have any questions. I will definitely answer them when I have time. Build your wealth and let's get after it.
