I've been watching the markets a lot lately as I'm sure many others here have. I try to sift through the mess of FUD and rampant speculation and shilling of coins that seems to have become the standard fare for all things crypto. It's not easy... everyone has an opinion one way or another. Everyone can prove it with a chart or two. Between the mainstream news and the hype and the analysts and the moon fiends and twitter where can the truth be found?
What's the best move when you wake up to 30% + losses in most of your coins? Is my level of diversification insufficient? Should I have waited on those last couple of trades last night? It's easy to start second guessing and try to pick apart where we made bad trades or poorly timed buys. Which piece of news was it that actually triggered this? Were there warning signs? Could I/Should I have seen it coming and moved my assets safe into stablecoins or cash?
Often it is impossible to tell for certain and the reality is that second guessing and picking all of your trades apart wont help. It will just lead to more indecision and doubt when markets do start to rebound. Truth be told we all invested in crypto because we believe in its potential. We see the advantage to controlling our own finances and wealth to a greater extent than has been possible up until now. We want to be able to educate ourselves and take ownership of our gains and losses. We want the 10x gains and 100x gains but the truth is we have to accept the risk of loss on a similar scale. Lets not pretend that 100% accuracy in trading is realistic. Everyone is going to take a beating once in a while and everyone hurts in a true bear market. Are we there yet? Or is this just yet another dip?
Now I've asked a whole bunch of near impossible to answer questions. I'd like to offer up what I see as a piece of the truth.
The cryptocurrency world is allowing itself to be owned in its drive to achieve those huge profits. We have thrown caution to the wind and lost sight of what crypto is SUPPOSED to stand for.
We claim to be the way forward into a brave new future of financial freedom. Free of the fees and gatekeeping of centralization and regulatory oversight.
We are not living up to that standard. Big capital has been accepted into the fold. They are working hard to own crypto markets and prices the way they do so much else in this world. We have accepted it. The minute that POW mining operations moved into the hands of those wealthy enough to set up farms running thousands of ASIC machines and we kept buying BTC anyway the idea of decentralization failed.
The moment we let big capital drive the price up by buying huge quantities of BTC or ETH and we kept buying anyway we left ourselves vulnerable to this... I can't effect the price by selling all of my tokens. I simply do not have the financial clout to pull that off. They do.
How long have we known that the value of most tokens is closely tied to either BTC or ETH? We know this for fact. And still as we have watched the price skyrocket on both of these flagship tokens, as we have read news constantly describing the ways in which big capital is moving into crypto on a huge scale we have continued as usual. We've known for years that whales move markets. Well now we are paying the price for ignoring that reality. With all of the new retail investors involved in crypto the power of those whales old and new to move markets is amplified. The power of FUD is amplified. The power of the news cycle is amplified. All it takes is a news story, a tweet, and a whale selling a portion of their holdings to start a selloff. The Hodl mentality is not strong with newer investors who came to crypto for big quick gains.
I admit I am newer to crypto, I watched from the sidelines for years before I jumped in... but I also do my research and am here for the long haul. I believe the markets will rebound, I believe that to at least some extent this crash was orchestrated, and I believe that when they do rebound big capital will have tightened its grip still further around the markets. Note the turnaround on Musk's twitter? One day BTC won't be accepted, refusing to confirm he has not sold Tesla's holdings, next day "Tesla has diamond hands!" I'd bet my whole portfolio he is buying more now.
We must remember that in certain assets we will be at the mercy of big capital and make informed decisions about our priorities. Are we truly here for decentralization, a level playing field, and a new financial paradigm? Or are we here to earn quick returns in hyperinflated fiat?
I am pleased to be involved in POB and HIVE because it looks to be more resistant to the issues I've described here. For true decentralization to be successful it needs to be difficult to control the means of token acquisition. I see that in both POB and HIVE. I see it and other alternatives to BTC and ETH as more valuable in the long term and more stable. Don't get me wrong. I HODL both BTC and ETH in earn programs. Hilariously they are locked up for the next 70-80 days. I may not sell even after they are unlocked- at least until I can exit without loss. But I WILL avoid buying more going forward and continuously reassess. I do not believe they represent what cryptocurrency is supposed to stand for any longer. If we want to truly decentralize and be free from the capital giants, their banks, centralized exchanges, fees, regulations, and oversight then we must pay attention from now on and be prepared remove our value from assets heavily controlled by them.