The issue of the quantum computer threat to classical cryptography methods including blockchains is being raised more and more often in various media.
But many do not take this threat seriously and even call this problem bloated and mythical. Someone says that the problem of the threat of a quantum computer will be relevant only in 100 years. And someone says that everyone needs to prepare for the transition to post-quantum cryptography right now.
In this article, we have collected evidence that the problem of the threat of a quantum computer is not inflated at all, and every year this problem is only becoming more relevant and acute.
The United States recognized the threat of a quantum computer as a national security issue
In May 2022, the White House published the “National Security Memorandum on Promoting United States Leadership in Quantum Computing While Mitigating Risks to Vulnerable Cryptographic Systems”.
Thus, the US government has officially recognized quantum computers as a threat to national security.
But studies of this problem in the United States began even earlier. Back in December 2018, the US Congress released the “National Quantum Initiative Act”, which stated that the US would fund, actively develop and study quantum technologies, and ensure US leadership in quantum computing on the world stage.
In April 2021, the National Agency for Standards and Technology released a white paper titled “Getting Ready for Post-Quantum Cryptography: Exploring Challenges Associated with Adopting and Using Post-Quantum Cryptographic Algorithms”.
In July 2022, NIST approved 4 main post-quantum security algorithms to date - CRYSTALS-KYBER (key-establishment), CRYSTALS-Dilithium (digital signatures), FALCON and SPHINCS.
All these documents clearly indicate that the world's strongest country is actively developing and studying the problem of quantum computing. And it is in full swing preparing for the transition to post-quantum cryptography. Obviously, the US government does not consider the problem of the threat of a quantum computer to be inflated and mythical.
How is the quantum computer threat related to blockchains?
The crux of the problem with a quantum computer is that it can break almost any classical cryptography in a very short amount of time.
Including a quantum computer will be able to crack, for example, the ECDSA P-256 (Elliptic Curve Digital Signature Algorithm) which Bitcoin, Ethereum and most blockchain projects use.
Although quantum computers have been around for quite some time (back in 2011, Lockheed Martin bought a quantum computer from D-wave), the problem of the threat of hacking classical cryptography methods has arisen relatively recently.
The thing is that to carry out a successful attack, a sufficiently powerful quantum computer is required, which does not exist today. It is this argument that most skeptics use, who do not believe in the imminent emergence of a quantum computer with sufficient power to break most known cryptographic protection methods.
But this argument is very weak, because every year technologies are improving and the emergence of a quantum computer that can hack the blockchain for example Bitcoin is just around the corner.
What exactly should be the power of a quantum computer for a successful attack?
It is impossible to answer this question precisely, because the power of such a computer also determines the time for which a quantum-unprotected algorithm can be cracked.
For example, Dr. Mark Webber from the University of Sussex claimed that a quantum computer with a capacity of 13 million qubits (analogue of bits in classical computers) could crack the Bitcoin blockchain in just 1 day (24 hours).
At the time of his interview, Dr. Webber said that the most powerful quantum computers at that time showed a power of 50-100 qubits.
To date, the world's most powerful quantum computer already has 5,000 qubits and is located in Germany.
And the Canadian developer of quantum computers, “D-Wave Systems”, promises to produce a computer with a capacity of 7000 qubits in 2023-2024.
It can be assumed that a quantum computer of less power will simply need a little more time (for example, a week or two) to carry out a successful attack. The whole point is that such an attack is still real.
The good news is that today there are already quantum-secured blockchains that are not afraid of quantum computers.
The development of a quantum-secured blockchain will require years of network development and testing, and theoretically, those blockchains that do not deal with the problem of quantum threat today may simply not have time to do it.
Even if at the time of the creation of a quantum computer of sufficient power, most of the existing cryptocurrencies (and there are more than 20,000 today) do not have time to switch to post-quantum cryptography, investors will still have a choice.
5 quantum-resistant cryptocurrencies
According to CoinMarketCap there are at least 5 quantum-resistant cryptocurrencies today.
Here they are (listed by capitalization - from largest to smallest):
- Quantum Resistant Ledger (QRL). Capitalization at the time of writing is about $13.2M,
- Nexus (NXS). Capitalization at the time of writing is about $11,4M,
- Cellframe (CELL). Capitalization at the time of writing is about $7.4M,
- ILCOIN (ILC). Capitalization at the time of writing is about $6.5M,
- Mochimo (MCM). Capitalization at the time of writing is about $0.4M.
All these cryptocurrencies use different methods of post-quantum cryptography. But what they have in common is that these blockchains have put the problem of the threat of a quantum computer in the first place.
And perhaps some of these blockchains will be able to show significant growth in the coming years. Especially considering that the problem of a quantum attack, including on insecure blockchains, is only becoming more acute every year.
The bottom line.
The problem of a quantum computer is not mythical, but quite real.
The largest countries in the world, including the US, are already in the race for quantum supremacy. And the assumption that the appearance of a quantum computer is a matter of decades looks ridiculous against this background.
Those who prepare in time for the emergence of a quantum computer of sufficient power are likely to be leaders in their field. Therefore, anyone who cares about security is likely to choose the maximum level of protection that only post-quantum cryptography can provide.
No one can say exactly when exactly the quantum computer will appear that will make a lot of noise. All we know is that it will definitely happen. When? Only time will give us the answer.
