24 NOV 2021 (WED)- Ethereum (ETH) Report Card

24 NOV 2021 (WED)- Ethereum (ETH) Report Card

By quantdoge | Daily Crypto Risk Report | 24 Nov 2021


Investment Disclaimer:

  • I am not a registered investment, legal, or tax adviser or a broker/dealer, and all opinions expressed by me are from my research for educational purposes only.
  • Past performance presented here is not an indicator of future performance.
  • This post expresses my own opinion about the cryptocurrency mentioned herein and is not an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of any offer to buy or sell the cryptocurrency mentioned in this post.

1A. Top 3 Good News for ETH HODLERS !!!

  • Gaming Altcoin on Ethereum and Polygon Jumps After Surprise Binance Listing
    Statistic as of 2021-11-24 06:08 AM EDT: 8 positive votes, 0 negative vote

    A surprise Binance listing spree has triggered a pair of rallies in the altcoin market. In a new announcement, Binance says it’s listing PlayDapp (PLA), a blockchain gaming platform that utilizes both the Ethereum and Polygon networks to host a growing roster of interoperable games.

    (Extracted from Crypto Panic)

  •  

    Vitalik Buterin Praises Arbitrum
    Statistic as of 2021-11-24 06:08 AM EDT: 8 positive votes, 0 negative vote

    “You are a central part of the solution and it’s great to see all the progress done.” So said Vitalik Buterin, ethereum’s co-founder, on Arbitrum’s Discord.

    (Extracted from Crypto Panic)

  • Massive inflows into Bitcoin, Ethereum prove this despite corrections
    Statistic as of 2021-11-24 06:08 AM EDT: 8 positive votes, 0 negative vote

    The entire cryptocurrency market has witnessed a massive setback. Overall, it shed more than 2.5% of its market capitalization, which currently stands at $2.52T. Yet, institutional investors seem unfazed by the bloodbath. The latest report published by CoinShares provides some support to this narrative.

    (Extracted from Crypto Panic)

1B. Top 3 Bad News for ETH HODLERS !!!

2. How Ethereum Performs Relative to Other Cryptos ?

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As of 23 Nov 2021, Ethereum has made a cumulative return of 3,272.54% since Jan 2020 and 587.26%  since Jan 2021. It is currently the 10th greatest performing crypto asset since Jan 2021 as compared to the other cryptocurrencies presented above.

3. Technical Analysis on Ethereum

 

3.1. Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP)

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VWAP is a technical indicator used by a trader to gauge the overall trend of an asset price movement. VWAP line (orange line) represents the volume-weighted average price (average price here is defined as the average of high, low and close prices) while close price line (blue line) represents the price when ETH is closed at the end of every single day. 

Whenever blue line (close price) is above orange line (VWAP), it indicates that the asset is gaining momentum and being traded higher than its average price level. This would represent a 'buy' opportunity for short-term momentum trader whom task is to trade following the trend while a longer term mean-revision trader might take it as a 'sell' opportunity, anticipating that the price of ETH (blue line) to fall to its average level (orange line).

Whenever blue line (close price) is below orange line (VWAP), it indicates that the asset is losing momentum and being traded lower than its average price level. This would represent a 'sell' opportunity for short-term momentum trader whom task is to trade following the trend while a longer term mean-revision trader might take it as a 'buy' opportunity, anticipating that the price of ETH (blue line) to rise to its average level (orange line).

As of 23 Nov 2021, VWAP is suggesting that ETH is trading at a normal pace.

3.2. Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD)

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MACD is often used by trader as a momentum indicator. There are 2 lines that form the above charts, namely MACD (12, 26) lines and Signal(9) line, while the histogram is calculated by subtracting Signal (9) from MACD (12,26). Histogram would fall to the negative territory whenever MACD (12, 26) is trending at a lower level than Signal (9) and rise to the positive territory whenever MACD (12,26) is trending at a higher level than Signal (9).

MACD (12, 26) is computed by subtracting the 26-day exponential moving average (EMA) of ETH closing price from its 12-day EMA. 
Signal (9) on the other hand is calculated as the 9-day EMA of MACD (12,26). 

As MACD (12, 26) goes higher away from Signal (9), it signifies that ETH is gaining momentum and whenever it goes trends at a lower level than Signal (9),it signifies that ETH is losing momentum. 

As of 23 Nov 2021, MACD is suggesting that ETH is losing momentum.

3.3. Bollinger Band

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Bollinger band is often being used by mean-reversion trader as a gauge to assess how undervalued or overvalued an asset is. Its chart made up of 4 lines, namely:

- SMA (20) (blue line), which is the 20-day simple moving average price of ETH
- Upper Band (orange line), which is computed by adding 2 standard deviations of ETH on SMA (20)
- Lower Band (red line) , which is computed by subtracting 2 standard deviations of ETH from SMA (20)
- Close (green line), which is the daily closing price of ETH

Whenever close line (green) touches the lower band (red), it indicates that ETH is corrected too much and is being traded at an undervalued level, representing a 'buy' opportunity. On the other hand, whenever close line (green) touches the upper band (orange), it indicates that ETH is gaining too much momentum and is being traded at an overvalued level, thus indicating a 'sell' opportunity. 

As of 23 Nov 2021, Bollinger Band is suggesting that ETH has been oversold.

3.4. Relative Strength Index (RSI)

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Just like Bollinger Band, Relative Strength Index is often being used by mean-reversion trader as a gauge to assess how undervalued or overvalued an asset is. There are 2 psychological levels, i.e. 30 and 70 in RSI. Whenever the RSI reaches 30, it indicates that ETH is corrected too much and is being traded at an undervalued level, representing a 'buy' opportunity. On the other hand, whenever RSI reaches 70, it indicates that ETH is gaining too much momentum and is being traded at an overvalued level, thus indicating a 'sell' opportunity. 

As of 23 Nov 2021, RSI is suggesting that ETH is neither oversold nor overbought.

Based on the technical analysis presented above, quantdoge holds a neutral stance on the outlook of ETH, but I could be wrong, hence please make your careful due diligence before making any financial decision

4. Ethereum Risk Profile

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Based on the 100-day 95% historical Value-at-Risk (VaR) profile of Ethereum defined above, ETH seems to trade at a greater risk level on 23 Nov 2021 as compared to 10 days before on 13 Nov 2021, with its biggest pullback being seen at 13.67% on a single day during the last 100 days. However, I could be wrong, hence please make your careful due diligence before making any financial decision.

5. Price Simulation for Ethereum

How did quantdoge simulation perform vs the actual ETH price movement over the last week ?

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Over the last 7 days, ETH has been trading near the median of quantdoge simulations, indicating that ETH is neither oversold nor overbought. 

6. ETH Community Analytics

Number of ETH Followers In The Past 24 Months

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During the past 24 months, Ethereum followers have grown 318.62 % from 447,983 to 1,875,361 on Twitter and grown 159.84 % from 447,864 to 1,163,731 on Reddit.

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Monthly increment of Ethereum Twitter followers peaked on May 2021 and its monthly increment of Reddit followers peaked on May 2021.

Number of ETH Followers In The Last 30 Days

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In the last 30 days alone, Ethereum followers have grown 8.89 % from 1,722,290 to 1,875,361 on Twitter and grown 2.87 % from 1,131,217 to 1,163,731 on Reddit.

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Daily increment of Ethereum Twitter followers peaked on 01 Nov 2021 and its daily increment of Reddit followers peaked on 21 Nov 2021.

7. Google Trends Analytics

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ethereum reached its peak in Google Search on 2021-05-09 with a Google Score of 100
Over the last quarter, ethereum Google Score has increased 39.2 % from 31.25 to 43.5
Over the last 6 months, ethereum Google Score has increased 22.54 % from 35.5 to 43.5


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Based on Google searches, ethereum is most sought after in Kosovo, followed by Jersey and Northern Mariana Islands this month.

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quantdoge
quantdoge

Data scientist in crypto and blockchain space.


Daily Crypto Risk Report
Daily Crypto Risk Report

This blog was created by quantdoge, a data scientist in the cryptocurrency and blockchain space to publish daily risk reports on different cryptocurrencies. All published reports in this blog were analyzed with in-house algorithmic trading and quantitative risk management technology. ** Investment disclaimer: ** I am not a registered investment, legal, or tax adviser or a broker/dealer, and all opinions expressed by me are from my research for educational purposes only.

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