Investment Disclaimer:
- I am not a registered investment, legal, or tax adviser or a broker/dealer, and all opinions expressed by me are from my research for educational purposes only.
- Past performance presented here is not an indicator of future performance.
- This post expresses my own opinion about the cryptocurrency mentioned herein and is not an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of any offer to buy or sell the cryptocurrency mentioned in this post.
- I do hold a long position in ALGO as a token holder.
PSA
This research writing is sponsored by Multi-Chain DeFi Liquidation Tracker, a decentralized finance (DeFi) data aggregator which tracks and analyses liquidation events across DeFi protocols of various blockchains in real time. While the app is still under development, you may follow their Twitter page for daily updates of liquidation statistics and charts.
TL; DR
If you have no time to read through all the details, here are the main takeaways from today's writing.
-> There are a lot of "first-ever" events happening on Algorand last 2 months, with its first-ever Play-to-Earn crypto game (Drone Racing League)
under planning, first-ever DeFi lending platform (Algofi) and its first-ever algorithmic stablecoin (AlgoStable) being launched in the past 2 months.
-> Grayscale is considering listing ALGO and crypto venture capital, Borderless Capital launches half a billion dollar fund for ALGO projects.
-> All technical indicators are implying that ALGO was oversold and is now trading below its volume weighted averages as the market is dumping BTC.
-> Algorand's social media recorded a 4-digit followers growth over the last 2 years. (Twitter: + 1,524.87 %, Reddit: + 8,215.28 % )
-> Algorand's Github forks increased by 101.99% from 151 to 305 over the past year.
-> Although 80% of all ALGOUSDT futures traders on Binance are long ALGO, its sell volumes are building up faster than its buy over the past few hours
as all crypto coins are in the bear market now.
1A. ALGO Project Updates
1. The Drone Racing League and Hivemind's Playground Labs Partner to Launch First Play-to-Earn Crypto Sports Game on Algorand Blockchain (05 Jan 2022)
Playground Labs, a play-to-earn (P2E) gaming affiliate of crypto-investment fund, Hivemind Capital Partners (Hivemind), and the Drone Racing League (DRL) announced a partnership to extend DRL's high-speed drone races beyond IRL and esports and into the metaverse. The companies will develop the first P2E sports competition on Algorand, the leading high-performance blockchain platform.
2. Liquidity Protocol Algofi Launches on Algorand, Offering a Lending Market, Stablecoin, and Liquidity Incentives (17 Dec 2021)
Algofi's simple-to-use platform is now live on Algorand. Users can earn interest, access leverage, and borrow against their cryptocurrency assets. With this launch, Algofi will also mint the native protocol stablecoin, AlgoStable (STBL).
3. Latrell Mitchell And Australian Sports Stars Launch New Home-Grown NFT Platform For Unprecedented Fan Engagement (17 Dec 2021)
Rugby League star Latrell Mitchell is among the first Australian athletes to sign up to Stadio, a new home-grown NFT Platform that has launched overnight. Designed to enable direct engagement with fans as part of a new era for athletes to commercialise their own personal brand. Fans can now acquire NFTs – the equivalent of digital, limited-edition sports memorabilia – from Mitchell's personal collection.
4. Dequency Executes First-Ever Music Synchronization License Smart Contract on the Algorand Blockchain (09 Dec 2021)
"Late Night People" by Goldfish ft. Soweto Kinch was licensed through Dequency's SmartSync contract for use in Algorand's Decipher conference, held November 29 - 30, 2021 in Miami, Florida. Built with Web 3.0 technology and ethos, Dequencies seeks to connect visual creators directly with recording artists and other music rightsholders.
5. GreenClimateDAO Set to Unlock the Power of the Crowd to Fight Climate Change (02 Dec 2021)
GreenClimateDAO aims to disrupt climate action via decentralized decision-making and financing for resilience projects. Carbon credit outputs from mitigation, reduction and removal projects will be tokenized and offered to anyone looking to take an active role in the fight against climate change. The DAO will initially be belaunched by a foundation chaired by Francisco Benedito, Co-Founder of ClimateCoin.
1B. Top 3 Good New for ALGO HODLERS !!!
- Grayscale Considering Fantom, Algorand for Its Investment Products
Statistic as of 2022-02-19 01:52 AM EDT: 26 positive votes, 2 negative votes
(Extracted from Crypto Panic) - Algorand partners with Israel’s leading research university to support blockchain education
Statistic as of 2022-02-19 01:52 AM EDT: 27 positive votes, 3 negative votes
The Algorand Foundation has partnered with Israel’s leading research university, Bar Ilan (BIU), to support blockchain technology education.
(Extracted from Crypto Panic) - Borderless Capital launches half billion dollar fund for Algorand projects
Statistic as of 2022-02-19 01:52 AM EDT: 16 positive votes, 0 negative vote
Borderless Capital is looking to use its $500 million fund to back projects powering the “next generation” of decentralized projects on the Algorand blockchain.
(Extracted from Crypto Panic)
1C. Top 3 Good New for ALGO HODLERS !!!
- $3 Million Lost as an Algorand-Based Decentralized Trading Platform Exploited
Statistic as of 2022-02-19 01:52 AM EDT: 0 positive vote, 3 negative votes
A new year, a new hack. This time - it was a decentralized trading platform Tinyman that suffered a smart contract exploit.
(Extracted from Crypto Panic)
2. How Algorand Performs Relative to Other Cryptos ?
Performance of All Layer 1 and Layer-2 Scaling Cryptos Under Quantdoge's Watchlist since 2021 (Sorted by % Return)
ALGO has undergone 124.56% return from USD 0.3994 to USD 0.8969 since 01 Jan 2021. ALGO is the 16th best performing crypto assets among others here.
3. How Resilience Algorand Is Towards Bitcoin Crash Relative to Other Cryptos ?
Historically, all altcoins are somewhat dependent on Bitcoin price movement and it’s often the case where if Bitcoin falls, most altcoins would follow.
Top 3 Cryptos That Are Most Resilient To Bitcoin Crash During Each of BTC 4 Largest Crashes in 2021
ALGO has proven resilience against BTC crash in 0 out of the 4 instances.
During the last 4 BTC market crashes,
When BTC dropped by -13.47 %, ALGO returned -30.18 % at 20 May 2021,
When BTC dropped by -13.13 %, ALGO returned -15.21 % at 22 January 2021,
When BTC dropped by -12.16 %, ALGO returned -14.19 % at 13 May 2021,
When BTC dropped by -11.39 %, ALGO returned -18.75 % at 22 June 2021
4. Technical Analysis on Algorand
4.1. Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP)
VWAP is a technical indicator used by a trader to gauge the overall trend of an asset price movement. VWAP line (orange line) represents the volume-weighted average price (average price here is defined as the average of high, low and close prices) while close price line (blue line) represents the price when ALGO is closed at the end of every single day.
Whenever blue line (close price) is above orange line (VWAP), it indicates that the asset is gaining momentum and being traded higher than its average price level. This would represent a 'buy' opportunity for short-term momentum trader whom task is to trade following the trend while a longer term mean-revision trader might take it as a 'sell' opportunity, anticipating that the price of ALGO (blue line) to fall to its average level (orange line).
Whenever blue line (close price) is below orange line (VWAP), it indicates that the asset is losing momentum and being traded lower than its average price level. This would represent a 'sell' opportunity for short-term momentum trader whom task is to trade following the trend while a longer term mean-revision trader might take it as a 'buy' opportunity, anticipating that the price of ALGO (blue line) to rise to its average level (orange line).
As of 18 Feb 2022, VWAP is suggesting that ALGO is trending down as it loses its upward momentum. ALGO is now trading below its week-long and month-long volume weighted averages.
4.2. Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD)
MACD is often used by trader as a momentum indicator. There are 2 lines that form the above charts, namely MACD (12, 26) lines and Signal(9) line, while the histogram is calculated by subtracting Signal (9) from MACD (12,26). Histogram would fall to the negative territory whenever MACD (12, 26) is trending at a lower level than Signal (9) and rise to the positive territory whenever MACD (12,26) is trending at a higher level than Signal (9).
MACD (12, 26) is computed by subtracting the 26-day exponential moving average (EMA) of ALGO closing price from its 12-day EMA.
Signal (9) on the other hand is calculated as the 9-day EMA of MACD (12,26).
As MACD (12, 26) goes higher away from Signal (9), it signifies that ALGO is gaining momentum and whenever it goes trends at a lower level than Signal (9),it signifies that ALGO is losing momentum.
As of 18 Feb 2022, MACD is suggesting that ALGO ALGO is trending down and loses its upward momentum as BTC plummeted badly from its $ 44,000+ weekly high.
4.3. Bollinger Band
Bollinger band is often being used by mean-reversion trader as a gauge to assess how undervalued or overvalued an asset is. Its chart made up of 4 lines, namely:
- SMA (20) (blue line), which is the 20-day simple moving average price of ALGO
- Upper Band (orange line), which is computed by adding 2 standard deviations of ALGO on SMA (20)
- Lower Band (red line) , which is computed by subtracting 2 standard deviations of ALGO from SMA (20)
- Close (green line), which is the daily closing price of ALGO
Whenever close line (green) touches the lower band (red), it indicates that ALGO is corrected too much and is being traded at an undervalued level, representing a 'buy' opportunity. On the other hand, whenever close line (green) touches the upper band (orange), it indicates that ALGO is gaining too much momentum and is being traded at an overvalued level, thus indicating a 'sell' opportunity.
As of 18 Feb 2022, Bollinger Band is suggesting that ALGO is now trading within an oversold (i.e. relatively undervalued) zone.
4.4. Relative Strength Index (RSI)
Just like Bollinger Band, Relative Strength Index is often being used by mean-reversion trader as a gauge to assess how undervalued or overvalued an asset is. There are 2 psychological levels, i.e. 30 and 70 in RSI. Whenever the RSI reaches 30, it indicates that ALGO is corrected too much and is being traded at an undervalued level, representing a 'buy' opportunity. On the other hand, whenever RSI reaches 70, it indicates that ALGO is gaining too much momentum and is being traded at an overvalued level, thus indicating a 'sell' opportunity.
As of 18 Feb 2022, RSI is suggesting that ALGO is oversold across all moving average windows.
4.5. Price and Volume Analysis
ALGO's daily active trading volume decreases as its price decreases.
Based on the technical analysis presented above, quantdoge is slightly bullish on ALGO, but I could be wrong, hence please make your careful due diligence before making any financial decision.
5. Algorand Risk Profile
Based on the 100-day 95% historical Value-at-Risk (VaR) profile of Algorand defined above, ALGO seems to trade at a similar risk level on 18 Feb 2022 as compared to 10 days before on 08 Feb 2022, with its biggest pullback being seen at [-15.19% on a single day during the last 100 days. However, I could be wrong, hence please make your careful due diligence before making any financial decision.
6. ALGO Community Analytics
Number of ALGO Followers In The Past 24 Months
During the past 24 months, Algorand followers have grown 1,524.87 % from 14,908 to 242,236 on Twitter and grown 8,215.28 % from 779 to 64,776 on Reddit.
Number of ALGO Followers In The Last 30 Days
In the last 30 days alone, Algorand followers have grown 6.32 % from 227,844 to 242,236 on Twitter and grown 2.58 % from 63,146 to 64,776 on Reddit.
Daily increment of Algorand Twitter followers peaked on 15 Feb 2022 and its daily increment of Reddit followers peaked on 10 Feb 2022.
On average, Algorand managed to attract 131 new Twitter followers and 56 new Reddit subscribers every day for the past 30 days.
7. Google Trends Analytics
"algorand" reached its peak in Google Search on 2021-09-05 with a Google Score of 100
Over the last quarter, "algorand" Google Score has decreased 20.0 % from 38.75 to 31.0
Over the last 6 months, "algorand" Google Score has decreased 49.59 % from 61.5 to 31.0
8. Developer Activity Analytics
Fork
Fork refers to the amount of time where the Github repo of current cryptocurrency is being copied. Higher fork number could mean that this cryptocurrency project is getting more interest in the developers community who likes to explore more on the deep technical of this project.
Algorand forks increased 101.99% from 151 to 305 in the past year.
Star
Star refers to the number of developers who bookmark the Github repo of current cryptocurrency. Higher star number could mean that this cryptocurrency project is getting more general interest in the developers community.
Algorand stars increased 127.4% from 427 to 971 in the past year.
Pull Request
Pull request contributor refers to developer who has made a successful improvements/ modifications on the Github repo of this current cryptocurrency project. Higher number of pull request contributors could mean that there is a high number of commitment given by developers to this cryptocurrency project.
However, a low number also could mean that the developer community of this project applies a strict standard when it comes to code review, so only developers who have published a high quality code with highly impactful features got approved.
Algorand pull request contributors increased 67.5% from 40 to 67 in the past year.
9. Binance Futures Activities
ALGOUSDT futures have relatively more buyers than the sellers in this month of February, with long futures traders accounted for 80% of all ALGOUSDT futures traders population.
ALGOUSDT long-short ratios remain consistently higher than BTCUSDT and ETHUSDT futures. A lot of long traders are entering their long positions after 16 Feb. Please take note that this long-short ratio is simply just dividing the number of accounts who are long by the number of accounts who are short, without taking any buy/ sell volume into consideration. 
At the time of writing, bears are in control now as selling volumes were building up faster than the buying volumes in the past few hours across BTCUSDT, ETHUSDT and ALGOUSDT futures.
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