17 JAN 2022 (MON)- KuCoin (KCS) Report Card

By quantdoge | Daily Crypto Risk Report | 17 Jan 2022


Investment Disclaimer:

  • I am not a registered investment, legal, or tax adviser or a broker/dealer, and all opinions expressed by me are from my research for educational purposes only.
  • Past performance presented here is not an indicator of future performance.
  • This post expresses my own opinion about the cryptocurrency mentioned herein and is not an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of any offer to buy or sell the cryptocurrency mentioned in this post.
  • I do hold a long position in KCS as a token holder.

1. What is KuCoin ? 

KuCoin is a centralized exchange where token holders of KuCoin native token, KCS are able to get discount from their trading fees by either staking KCS tokens or paying the trading fees in KCS.

2. How KuCoin Performs Relative to Other Cryptos ?

Performance of All Cryptos Under Quantdoge Watchlist since 2021 (Sorted by % Return)

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KCS has undergone 2,866.98% return from USD 0.6883 to USD 20.4217 since 01 Jan 2021. KCS is the 9th best performing crypto assets among others here.

3. How Resilience KuCoin Is Towards Bitcoin Crash Relative to Other Cryptos ?

Historically, all altcoins are somewhat dependent on Bitcoin price movement and it’s often the case where if Bitcoin falls, most altcoins would follow.

Top 3 Cryptos That Are Most Resilient To Bitcoin Crash During Each of BTC 4 Largest Crashes in 2021

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KCS has proven resilience against BTC crash in 0 out of the 4 instances.

During the last 4 BTC market crashes,
When BTC dropped by -13.47 %, KCS returned -37.97 % at 20 May 2021,
When BTC dropped by -13.13 %, KCS returned -9.17 % at 22 January 2021,
When BTC dropped by -12.16 %, KCS returned -13.29 % at 13 May 2021,
When BTC dropped by -11.39 %, KCS returned -21.38 % at 22 June 2021

4. Technical Analysis on KuCoin

4.1. Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP)

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VWAP is a technical indicator used by a trader to gauge the overall trend of an asset price movement. VWAP line (orange line) represents the volume-weighted average price (average price here is defined as the average of high, low and close prices) while close price line (blue line) represents the price when KCS is closed at the end of every single day. 

Whenever blue line (close price) is above orange line (VWAP), it indicates that the asset is gaining momentum and being traded higher than its average price level. This would represent a 'buy' opportunity for short-term momentum trader whom task is to trade following the trend while a longer term mean-revision trader might take it as a 'sell' opportunity, anticipating that the price of KCS (blue line) to fall to its average level (orange line).

Whenever blue line (close price) is below orange line (VWAP), it indicates that the asset is losing momentum and being traded lower than its average price level. This would represent a 'sell' opportunity for short-term momentum trader whom task is to trade following the trend while a longer term mean-revision trader might take it as a 'buy' opportunity, anticipating that the price of KCS (blue line) to rise to its average level (orange line).

As of 16 Jan 2022, VWAP is suggesting that KCS has been gaining a lot of momentum and is now trading at its month-long volume-weighted average price.

4.2. Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD)

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MACD is often used by trader as a momentum indicator. There are 2 lines that form the above charts, namely MACD (12, 26) lines and Signal(9) line, while the histogram is calculated by subtracting Signal (9) from MACD (12,26). Histogram would fall to the negative territory whenever MACD (12, 26) is trending at a lower level than Signal (9) and rise to the positive territory whenever MACD (12,26) is trending at a higher level than Signal (9).

MACD (12, 26) is computed by subtracting the 26-day exponential moving average (EMA) of KCS closing price from its 12-day EMA. 
Signal (9) on the other hand is calculated as the 9-day EMA of MACD (12,26). 

As MACD (12, 26) goes higher away from Signal (9), it signifies that KCS is gaining momentum and whenever it goes trends at a lower level than Signal (9),it signifies that KCS is losing momentum. 

As of 16 Jan 2022, MACD is suggesting that KCS has been gaining a lot of momentum and is now trading beyond its signal line.

4.3. Bollinger Band

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Bollinger band is often being used by mean-reversion trader as a gauge to assess how undervalued or overvalued an asset is. Its chart made up of 4 lines, namely:

- SMA (20) (blue line), which is the 20-day simple moving average price of KCS
- Upper Band (orange line), which is computed by adding 2 standard deviations of KCS on SMA (20)
- Lower Band (red line) , which is computed by subtracting 2 standard deviations of KCS from SMA (20)
- Close (green line), which is the daily closing price of KCS

Whenever close line (green) touches the lower band (red), it indicates that KCS is corrected too much and is being traded at an undervalued level, representing a 'buy' opportunity. On the other hand, whenever close line (green) touches the upper band (orange), it indicates that KCS is gaining too much momentum and is being traded at an overvalued level, thus indicating a 'sell' opportunity. 

As of 16 Jan 2022, Bollinger Band is suggesting that KCS is neither overbought nor oversold.

4.4. Relative Strength Index (RSI)

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Just like Bollinger Band, Relative Strength Index is often being used by mean-reversion trader as a gauge to assess how undervalued or overvalued an asset is. There are 2 psychological levels, i.e. 30 and 70 in RSI. Whenever the RSI reaches 30, it indicates that KCS is corrected too much and is being traded at an undervalued level, representing a 'buy' opportunity. On the other hand, whenever RSI reaches 70, it indicates that KCS is gaining too much momentum and is being traded at an overvalued level, thus indicating a 'sell' opportunity. 

As of 16 Jan 2022, RSI is suggesting that KCS is neither overbought nor oversold.

4.5. Price and Volume Analysis

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KCS volume has been decreasing since the heavy sell-off  in earlier December last year. Although KCS is now in an upward trajectory, it is however not accompanied by a growing volume, and the Jan daily active trading volume is nowhere near Nov last year. KCS continued upward trend is now hinges on whether there is a growing inflow of liquidity and volume. Should the buying volume continue to slow down, its price has a fair chance of either retracting to a lower price level or staying stagnant.

Based on the technical analysis presented above, quantdoge is neutral on KCS, but I could be wrong, hence please make your careful due diligence before making any financial decision. 

5. KuCoin Risk Profile

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Based on the 100-day 95% historical Value-at-Risk (VaR) profile of KuCoin defined above, KCS seems to trade at a similar risk level on 16 Jan 2022 as compared to 10 days before on 06 Jan 2022, with its biggest pullback being seen at -15.51% on a single day during the last 100 days. However, I could be wrong, hence please make your careful due diligence before making any financial decision.

6. Price Simulation for KuCoin

How did quantdoge simulation perform vs the actual KCS price movement over the last week ?

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Over the last 7 days, KCS is trading near the median range of all quantdoge simulations, indicating that KCS is neither overbought nor oversold.

7. KCS Community Analytics

Number of KCS Followers In The Past 24 Months

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During the past 24 months, KuCoin followers have grown 322.85 % from 336,439 to 1,422,647 on Twitter and grown 346.23 % from 24,313 to 108,493 on Reddit.

Number of KCS Followers In The Last 30 Days

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In the last 30 days alone, KuCoin followers have grown 10.17 % from 1,291,328 to 1,422,647 on Twitter and grown 4.69 % from 103,633 to 108,493 on Reddit.

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Daily increment of KuCoin Twitter followers peaked on 04 Jan 2022 and its daily increment of Reddit followers peaked on 09 Jan 2022.

There are on average 4,610 new followers daily on KuCoin Twitter and 168 new subscribers daily on its Reddit.

8. Google Trends Analytics

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kucoin reached its peak in Google Search on 2021-10-31 with a Google Score of 61
Over the last quarter, kucoin Google Score has decreased 40.62 % from 48.0 to 28.5
Over the last 6 months, kucoin Google Score has increased 78.12 % from 16.0 to 28.5

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Over the last month, KuCoin Google searches were mainly from Andorra, followed by Maldives and Estonia.

If you like my analysis and articles, please follow me at @quantdoge for daily updates.

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quantdoge
quantdoge

Data scientist in crypto and blockchain space.


Daily Crypto Risk Report
Daily Crypto Risk Report

This blog was created by quantdoge, a data scientist in the cryptocurrency and blockchain space to publish daily risk reports on different cryptocurrencies. All published reports in this blog were analyzed with in-house algorithmic trading and quantitative risk management technology. ** Investment disclaimer: ** I am not a registered investment, legal, or tax adviser or a broker/dealer, and all opinions expressed by me are from my research for educational purposes only.

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